Raymond James has reiterated a Market Perform rating on National Fuel Gas (NFG), while management for the company left fiscal year 2026 guidance intact with no revisions to capital expenditures, operating expenses or production targets. The stock is trading at $85.77 and has returned 22.32% over the past year, carrying a 2.5% dividend yield.
The brokerage highlighted that National Fuel Gas entered the period with an overall financial health assessment rated as "GREAT" by InvestingPro, a signal Raymond James interprets as supporting the company’s decision to sustain its outlook heading into fiscal 2026.
On near-term operational trends, Raymond James projects second-quarter production to decline marginally - by roughly 0.3% quarter-over-quarter - a decrease it attributes to timing effects and the deferment of activity related to a recent storm. The firm expects production to rebound sequentially in the third quarter by about 5% and then to remain broadly stable for the remainder of fiscal 2026.
From a profitability perspective, Raymond James' full-year 2026 earnings-per-share estimate for National Fuel Gas is $8.46, which is 5% above the consensus Street estimate of $8.05. The research note points to the company’s regulated segments - including utility and pipeline operations - as important offsets to the more volatile upstream business, helping to smooth overall earnings exposure.
Risk mitigation through hedging is a notable part of National Fuel Gas’ approach. Raymond James noted a conservative hedging program that provides approximately 70% downside protection for the remaining production in fiscal 2026. That strategy, combined with the company’s historically low price volatility - a reported beta of 0.6 - is cited as a reason its business model can outperform conventional energy peers during difficult commodity cycles.
InvestingPro data also calls out the company’s dividend durability: National Fuel Gas has reportedly increased its dividend for 55 consecutive years, underscoring a long-running record of shareholder distributions.
Raymond James’ report referenced the company’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results as evidence of operational strength. National Fuel Gas posted an EPS of $2.06 for the quarter, beating the $1.99 consensus, and reported revenues of $651.51 million versus expectations of $650.7 million. Those results were cited as a solid start to the fiscal year and an example of the firm’s ability to top financial projections.
The research note also reminded investors that National Fuel Gas’ in-depth analyst coverage is available to subscribers: the company’s Pro Research Report is among more than 1,400 reports accessible on the InvestingPro platform.
Overall, Raymond James’ stance reflects a balanced view that combines the company’s steady regulated cash flows and hedging protections with the inherent volatility of upstream exposure. The firm’s Market Perform rating signals neither a strong buy nor a sell recommendation, but rather an expectation of relative stability supported by the factors described above.