Raymond James has reaffirmed a Market Perform rating on Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) in the wake of the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, which was published Wednesday after the market close. At the time of the note, Murphy USA shares were trading at $444.85 and the company’s market capitalization stood at $8.33 billion. Year to date, the stock has gained 10.24%.
The research team at Raymond James highlighted that quarterly EBITDA came in above consensus, attributing the outperformance primarily to stronger-than-expected fuel margins and a better same-store sales result than anticipated. Those factors underpinned the firm’s recognition of near-term operational strength.
Third-party data from InvestingPro referenced by analysts shows Murphy USA has been profitable over the last twelve months and carries a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 19.33. The same data also points to relatively thin gross profit margins of 7.6% for the company.
Despite the recent upside in margins and the EBITDA beat, Raymond James expressed reservations about the company’s ability to deliver consistent year-over-year EBITDA and earnings-per-share growth if fuel margins do not continue to expand in a meaningful way. The firm’s implied outlook for 2026 signals another year that could be flat to modestly negative in terms of EBITDA and net income on a year-over-year basis, even after accounting for additional store openings and planned capital expenditures.
Raymond James said it plans to issue additional commentary and update its estimates after Murphy USA’s scheduled earnings call on Thursday at 11 a.m. ET and following subsequent discussions.
Brokerage reactions and price-target moves
A number of other sell-side firms have adjusted price targets and reiterated views following the company’s results and the strength observed in fuel margins:
- KeyBanc Capital Markets retained an Overweight rating and set a $460 price target, citing stronger-than-expected fuel margins, especially in October.
- Stephens raised its price target to $475, pointing to robust retail fuel margins and ongoing strength in the nicotine segment.
- Wells Fargo lifted its price target to $410 while keeping an Equal Weight rating, forecasting a solid fourth quarter underpinned by fuel sales and steady store performance.
- Jefferies moved its price target to $405, noting potential upside in fourth-quarter results based on improved traffic trends and modest fuel margin gains.
Corporate update
In a separate corporate development disclosed by the company, CEO Mindy K. West is set to receive a significant compensation package effective January 1, 2026.
Bottom line
Taken together, the recent results, analyst commentary and price-target adjustments point to positive near-term momentum for Murphy USA driven by retail fuel margins and stable store execution. At the same time, the central analytic concern remains whether margin strength can be sustained long enough to produce consistent EBITDA and EPS growth into 2026 and beyond.
Key points
- Raymond James reiterates Market Perform on Murphy USA after a Q4 2025 EBITDA beat driven by fuel margin upside and better same-store sales.
- Multiple brokerages raised or maintained price targets, reflecting strength in retail fuel margins and stable retail execution.
- Company valuation metrics show profitability with a trailing P/E of 19.33 and thin gross profit margins of 7.6%.
Risks and uncertainties
- Raymond James flagged a risk that EBITDA and EPS may not grow consistently without meaningful and sustained fuel margin expansion - a concern that affects investors and those focused on retail energy exposure.
- The implied 2026 outlook from the research firm suggests potential flat to modestly negative year-over-year EBITDA and net income despite continued store growth and capital spending - creating uncertainty for revenue and cash-flow projections.