Raymond James assesses that Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is in the process of forming an intermediate-term price low, based on both real-price and relative-performance indicators. The firm says a short-term rally phase lasting roughly two to four weeks is trying to establish itself, supported by several technical and market-flow signals.
According to Raymond James, price momentum on the stock is positive and relative strength is turning higher when measured against the S&P 500. Volume patterns are showing early signs of buying pressure, which the firm interprets as institutional investors beginning to accumulate positions.
On specific technical levels, the stock is trading above important moving averages: the 50-day near $184.93 and the 200-day near $173.56. Raymond James identifies the first resistance point at approximately $192.56. The firm notes that a multi-day close above that level would serve to confirm the newly developing short-term rally phase.
Looking beyond the immediate resistance, Raymond James places the next upside technical target near major resistance at about $207.03, which represents roughly 8.1% upside from current levels cited by the firm. The analyst house says that a weekly close above $207.03 would support a breakout from what it describes as an eight-month consolidation and would confirm that the intermediate-term price trend has turned upward.
Those technical observations are presented alongside fundamental signals that Raymond James and associated research platforms view as broadly supportive. InvestingPro data referenced by the firm indicates the stock is trading below its Fair Value estimate. The $4.65 trillion semiconductor company delivered a 47% total return over the past year, and its PEG ratio is cited at 0.79, which the report characterizes as suggesting attractive growth potential relative to its earnings multiple.
An earnings report due tomorrow is a clear near-term catalyst. Investors and subscribers can access extended analysis through Nvidia’s Pro Research Report and additional InvestingPro material, including more than 1,400 available research reports and exclusive ProTips.
Raymond James also highlights Nvidia’s relative leadership position: the stock has remained in Quadrant 2 on both monthly and weekly timeframes, which the firm interprets as consistent outperformance of the broader Information Technology sector. InvestingPro classifies Nvidia as a leading company in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry and makes available more than 15 ProTips for deeper insight.
Several brokerages and research teams have published or reiterated views ahead of the company’s fiscal-quarter results. Truist Securities reiterated a Buy rating and projects fourth-quarter revenue of $66.07 billion, a 67% increase year over year, with earnings per share of $1.53. Consensus estimates for the upcoming fiscal first quarter show revenue near $72.7 billion and EPS of $1.69.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an Overweight rating and suggested Nvidia could exceed expectations and raise its guidance, with projected fiscal year 2026 EPS of $9.00 and fiscal year 2027 EPS of $12.00, driven by strong compute demand and supply constraints. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and expressed confidence in Nvidia’s full-year outlook. KeyBanc also stayed at Overweight, expecting fourth-quarter revenue around $69 billion and first-quarter guidance in the $74 billion to $75 billion range.
Jefferies analysts noted growing public concern about artificial intelligence within the United States, a development they say could prompt increased regulatory focus. That cautionary note was included alongside the generally positive revenue and earnings expectations from other firms.
In sum, Raymond James points to converging technical and fundamental signals signaling a potential intermediate-term bottom, while a cluster of analyst projections and the impending earnings release provide a near-term catalyst that market participants will monitor closely.
Summary
Raymond James sees signs that Nvidia is forming an intermediate-term price low, backed by positive momentum, improving relative strength versus the S&P 500, rising volume consistent with institutional accumulation, and technical thresholds that, if cleared, would confirm a new short-term rally and potential breakout from an eight-month consolidation. Analysts from multiple firms have reiterated positive ratings and offered revenue and EPS forecasts ahead of Nvidia’s imminent earnings report.
Key points
- Nvidia is showing a nascent two- to four-week rally phase with positive momentum and improving relative strength versus the S&P 500.
- Technical levels to watch: trading above the 50-day (~$184.93) and 200-day (~$173.56) moving averages; first resistance at ~$192.56 and a next target near $207.03 (about 8.1% upside).
- Fundamental metrics cited include a PEG ratio of 0.79, a 47% one-year return, and InvestingPro’s view that the stock is trading below Fair Value; multiple brokerages have reiterated Overweight/Buy ratings ahead of earnings.
Risks and uncertainties
- Technical confirmation is conditional - a sustained multi-day close above ~$192.56 is required to validate the short-term rally phase; failure to close above this level could invalidate the signal.
- The potential breakout above ~$207.03 hinges on a weekly close; absent that confirmation, the stock could remain in its recent consolidation period.
- Regulatory risks tied to growing public concern over artificial intelligence in the United States, as noted by Jefferies, could affect sentiment and policy toward the sector.