Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

Piper Sandler Sticks With Overweight on Floor & Decor, $80 Target After Q4 Results

Analyst reiteration follows an EPS beat and modest comp-store pressures; January comps show early recovery while February was weather-hit

By Caleb Monroe FND
Piper Sandler Sticks With Overweight on Floor & Decor, $80 Target After Q4 Results
FND

Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating and an $80.00 price target on Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. after the retailer reported fourth-quarter results. The firm highlighted an earnings-per-share beat despite a slight comparable-store sales shortfall. Company metrics cited include a P/E of 33.28 and a $7.12 billion market capitalization, and InvestingPro flags the shares as undervalued versus Fair Value. January comparable sales turned positive, while February was weakened by weather. Management set 2026 comparable sales guidance between -2% and +1% and expects high-30% flow-through on any positive comparable growth. The company also opened a new warehouse store and design center in Dearborn, Michigan as part of its expansion strategy.

Key Points

  • Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating and $80.00 price target on Floor & Decor after Q4 results, noting an EPS beat despite a slight comparable-store sales miss.
  • January comparable sales turned positive at 0.4% after three years of declines; February quarter-to-date comps were -3.5%, with weather cited as a factor and roughly 45% of unaffected stores running positive comps.
  • Floor & Decor set 2026 comparable-sales guidance at -2% to +1% and expects a high-30% flow-through margin on any positive comparable growth; the company opened a new warehouse store and design center in Dearborn, Michigan as part of expansion plans.

Overview

Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating on Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FND) and kept an $80.00 price target following the company's fourth-quarter financial report. The analyst note emphasized that fourth-quarter earnings per share surpassed expectations even as comparable-store sales fell slightly short of forecasts.

Valuation and market context

The firm reported that Floor & Decor is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.28 and carries a market capitalization of $7.12 billion. According to InvestingPro analysis cited by the firm, the stock appears to be undervalued relative to its Fair Value.

Comparable-store sales and near-term trends

Management disclosed that January comparable sales moved into positive territory at 0.4%, representing an inflection point after three years of declines. However, February comparable sales year-to-date were reported as negative 3.5%, with weather identified as a contributing factor. The company noted that roughly 45% of stores that did not experience weather disruption appeared to be producing positive comparable sales.

Guidance and margin expectations

For 2026, Floor & Decor set comparable-sales guidance in a range from negative 2% to positive 1%. The company also outlined expectations for a high-30% flow-through margin on any positive comparable growth in 2026.

Leadership and demand signals

New Chief Executive Officer Brad Paulsen presented initiatives aimed at strengthening the company's fundamentals. Piper Sandler highlighted improving mattress and furniture sales as a leading indicator for future flooring demand, suggesting those categories could signal broader strength in the core flooring business.

Expansion update

In a separate operational development, Floor & Decor announced the opening of a new warehouse store and design center in Dearborn, Michigan, located at 1300 Shehadi Court. The site is expected to employ approximately 50 associates, comprising 35 full-time and 15 part-time positions. Wesley Walker will serve as the Chief Executive Merchant for the location. The company plans a ribbon-cutting ceremony in collaboration with the Dearborn Chamber of Commerce to mark the grand opening. Company communications framed this new location as part of an ongoing expansion effort to grow its retail footprint and strengthen its presence in the Michigan market.

Takeaway

Piper Sandler's continued Overweight stance reflects confidence in Floor & Decor's longer-term prospects despite short-term comp pressures and weather-related disruption. Valuation metrics and the InvestingPro assessment cited in the note provide the firm with a thesis that the shares may be trading below intrinsic Fair Value, while management's guidance and margin targets outline the company's expectations should comparable sales recover.

Risks

  • Comparable-store sales remain vulnerable to weather and other near-term disruptions, which can materially affect quarter-to-date performance - impacting the retail and home improvement sectors.
  • Guidance for 2026 includes the potential for modest negative comparable sales (down to -2%), creating uncertainty for revenue growth and profitability assumptions used by investors in retail and consumer discretionary analysis.
  • Future performance depends in part on demand across related categories such as mattresses and furniture; if those categories do not continue to strengthen, anticipated positive signals for flooring sales may not materialize.

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