Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating on DexCom (NASDAQ:DXCM) and set a price target of $75.00, a stance that tracks with the prevailing analyst consensus which remains strongly positive at a 1.48 score (where 1 denotes Strong Buy). InvestingPro-derived data referenced by the research note shows the shares trading below what is identified as their Fair Value, and analyst price objectives cited in the coverage span from $68 to $112.
The research firm flagged the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) NIT2 coverage expansion as an investment thesis that has not been fully quantified by the market in terms of its potential magnitude. Piper Sandler uses the expansion of basal coverage as precedent in framing its expectation for NIT2 and projects a timeline for regulatory outcomes - anticipating a proposed ruling around midyear 2026, followed by a final decision implemented in late 2026 or early 2027.
Following a favorable decision and implementation, Piper Sandler models a meaningful acceleration in NIT2 market penetration. The firm estimates that the resulting uplift could supply a tailwind greater than 250 basis points to DexCom’s top-line growth in subsequent years, which would represent a material contribution to revenue expansion if realized.
Beyond the CMS pathway, Piper Sandler outlined several operational and product-related catalysts that underpin its favorable long-run view. These include the ongoing 15-day sensor rollout, which the firm expects to deliver margin expansion benefits, continued international expansion and the introduction of DexCom’s next-generation G8 sensor.
DexCom itself provided preliminary fourth-quarter 2025 revenue figures of approximately $1.26 billion, representing a 13% increase versus the comparable period in 2024. U.S. revenue for the quarter was reported at roughly $892 million, up 11% year-over-year, while international revenue grew 18% to about $368 million. This outperformance versus consensus estimates coincided with Morgan Stanley reiterating an Overweight rating and matching Piper Sandler’s $75.00 price target.
Not all brokers share the same outlook. Barclays moved to downgrade DexCom from Equalweight to Underweight, citing concerns over market share dynamics in the continuous glucose monitoring market and pointing to competitive pressure from Abbott’s Freestyle Libre platform. Barclays also downgraded Insulet Corporation to Underweight, highlighting competitive worries in the tubeless automated insulin devices space and assigning a $274.00 price target to Insulet.
In corporate leadership news, DexCom named Jake Leach as President and CEO effective January 1. Leach, a long-tenured company executive, has signaled a focus on metabolic health and is scheduled to make public appearances at CES 2026 and at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. These personnel and public-facing developments accompany the strategic and regulatory factors shaping analyst views.
Taken together, the mix of an affirmed Overweight stance from Piper Sandler, upgraded revenue momentum in DexCom’s preliminary results, contrasting broker opinions and a management transition illustrate the changing competitive and regulatory landscape within the medical device sector. The company’s path to capturing potential NIT2-related upside appears to be a central variable in how investors and analysts are re-evaluating future growth assumptions.