Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

Piper Sandler Sees Steven Madden Q4 Strength; Flags Softer 2026 Guidance After FFANY Notes

Analyst models show potential upside to consensus EPS for SHOO on wholesale and DTC momentum; Revolve projected to outpace estimates on sales and margin gains

By Avery Klein SHOO RVLV
Piper Sandler Sees Steven Madden Q4 Strength; Flags Softer 2026 Guidance After FFANY Notes
SHOO RVLV

Piper Sandler issued a preview of fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results for Steven Madden (SHOO) and Revolve Group (RVLV), forecasting holiday-quarter strength that could lift results above consensus. The firm penciled in modest downside to fiscal 2026 estimates for Steven Madden after industry comments about private label softness. For Revolve, the bank sees sales and margin improvement driven by reduced promotions and brand-level actions.

Key Points

  • Piper Sandler models Steven Madden Q4 EPS at $0.47, in line with consensus, but notes upside to $0.50-$0.52 if wholesale replenishment and DTC strength persist.
  • The firm forecasts a 12% sales increase for Kulture Kraze Group with double-digit comparable sales, and expects fiscal 2026 consensus estimates for Steven Madden to fall by about $0.10 per share due to softer private label trends.
  • Revolve Group is projected to outpace consensus on Q4 sales (6% vs. 4%) and deliver larger gross margin expansion (130 bps vs. 70 bps), aided by promotional pullbacks and planned initiatives including store openings and the April Grow-Good Beauty launch.

Piper Sandler released a pre-earnings look at fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 for Steven Madden (NASDAQ:SHOO) and Revolve Group (NYSE:RVLV), projecting a stronger holiday period than consensus and more cautious guidance for the coming fiscal year in the case of Steven Madden.

For Steven Madden, Piper Sandler models fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.47, which matches current consensus. The firm, however, identifies upside risk to the print, saying results could reach $0.50 to $0.52 if wholesale replenishment continues and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels remain robust. Within its sales modeling, Piper Sandler forecasts a 12% increase in sales for Kulture Kraze Group, with comparable sales rising in double digits.

The report notes that the footwear maker is trading at $17.92 a share and carries a market capitalization of $1.47 billion. Steven Madden is scheduled to report quarterly results on February 26. Piper Sandler’s view aligns with InvestingPro analysis that the stock appears undervalued at current levels despite a 37% decline over the last six months; an InvestingPro Tip referenced in the brief indicates net income is expected to grow this year, which underpins the upbeat fourth-quarter outlook. The company is also said to have maintained dividend payments for 39 consecutive years, with a current yield of 2.23%.

Looking beyond the quarter, Piper Sandler expects consensus estimates for fiscal 2026 to be trimmed by roughly $0.10 per share. That adjustment follows comments from FFANY pointing to softer trends in private label. In the firm’s scenario, mass market sales would fall by $40 million in fiscal 2026 to $300 million, representing about 11% of total Steven Madden sales.

On Revolve Group, Piper Sandler’s preview is more overtly positive. The firm projects fourth-quarter revenue growth of 6%, above the 4% consensus, and forecasts gross margin expansion of 130 basis points compared with consensus expectations of roughly 70 basis points. The bank attributes the better margin outlook to continued promotional pullbacks across brands, highlighting that FWRD did not repeat promotions for a six-week stretch between October and November.

Operationally, Piper Sandler anticipates Revolve will announce one to two new store openings for fiscal 2026 and will launch Grow-Good Beauty in April, a Cardi B partnership that will debut on a separate e-commerce site.

The preview also summarizes recent analyst activity around Wolverine World Wide. Stifel reiterated a Buy rating with a $25.00 price target, citing strong results from Saucony and Merrell and constructive consumer trends expected to aid fourth-quarter 2025 results. Conversely, Argus downgraded Wolverine from Buy to Hold, citing uncertain trade policies and softening sales in the Lifestyle category, and flagged weak direct-to-consumer revenue in the third quarter as a potential challenge for growth and profitability. UBS remained positive, keeping a Buy rating with a $28.00 target and pointing to investments in the Active brands portfolio as supportive of longer-term sales and earnings expansion. Collectively, these assessments exhibit a mix of optimism and caution among analysts assessing Wolverine World Wide.

Investors looking at the upcoming earnings releases are thus presented with a split picture: near-term upside potential for Steven Madden driven by wholesale and DTC dynamics alongside a modestly weaker fiscal 2026 outlook tied to private label pressures, and stronger-than-expected operational momentum at Revolve supported by margin recovery and new product initiatives.

Risks

  • Softer private label trends noted by FFANY could reduce mass market sales for Steven Madden, with Piper Sandler modeling a $40 million decline to $300 million in fiscal 2026 - this impacts retail and footwear sector revenue exposure.
  • Promotional strategies remain a variable for margin recovery; if promotional pullbacks are not sustained, Revolve’s projected margin expansion could weaken, affecting e-commerce apparel profitability.
  • Uncertainty in trade policy and softening Lifestyle-category sales highlighted by Argus for Wolverine World Wide represent risks to direct-to-consumer and broader footwear/apparel margins.

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