Piper Sandler has adjusted its price target for BP to $44.00 from $43.00 while preserving a Neutral rating on the shares. Analyst targets compiled by InvestingPro span from $30 to $54, with the stock quoted at $36.97 and InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment indicating the shares could be trading below intrinsic value at present.
The market reaction was immediate. According to Piper Sandler, BP's stock slid roughly 6% after the company said it would suspend its share buyback program. The move came despite quarterly results that matched expectations on some measures - BP reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.60 and EBIT of $4.4 billion.
While buybacks are on hold, BP continues to return cash to shareholders via its dividend. InvestingPro data shows the dividend yield stands at 5.35% and that the company has paid dividends for 35 consecutive years.
Piper Sandler framed the suspension of buybacks as a decision to prioritize balance-sheet strength. The firm wrote that shoring up the balance sheet should better position BP for future shareholder returns and provide the flexibility needed to advance its resource pipeline. The research note also cited improved execution and lower capital expenditures as constructive developments for the company.
InvestingPro data places BP's debt-to-equity ratio at a moderate 1.37, a measure Piper Sandler pointed to in supporting the company’s pivot toward reinforcing financial resilience.
On the modeling side, Piper Sandler adjusted its first-quarter 2026 projections upward. The firm now forecasts earnings per share of $0.65, up from a prior estimate of $0.57, and increased its EBITDA estimate to $8,316 million from $8,222 million.
Despite the revisions, Piper Sandler did not alter its Neutral recommendation. The firm cited ongoing balance-sheet headwinds and concerns about BP's relative valuation as reasons for maintaining that stance, even as it described the company's rate of change as encouraging.
BP's own fourth-quarter 2025 disclosure showed a mixed picture. The company reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $1.5 billion for the quarter, but recorded an IFRS loss of $3.4 billion driven by roughly $4 billion in impairments. The company also noted the difficult oil price environment as context for these results.
Market watchers have taken differing views. Separately, Melius Research downgraded BP from Hold to Sell and set a $31.00 price target. That downgrade attributed the change to BP's renewed emphasis on oil and gas after prior investments in clean energy failed to deliver the expected returns.
These developments - the buyback suspension, the impairment-related IFRS loss, and the split among analyst recommendations - underscore the strategic recalibration BP is undertaking as it navigates current market conditions.
Summary: Piper Sandler raised its BP price target to $44 and lifted near-term earnings and EBITDA estimates, but left its Neutral rating intact amid balance-sheet and valuation concerns. BP's suspension of share repurchases pressured the stock, even as the company continues a long-standing dividend and reports mixed quarterly results, including a significant IFRS impairment charge.