Overview
Piper Sandler has reduced its 12-month price target for Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) to $135.00 from $155.00, while keeping an Overweight recommendation on the shares. The revised target still implies substantial upside relative to Robinhood’s prevailing market price of $85.60.
Market and earnings reaction
The move follows Robinhood’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial release, which came in below analyst forecasts for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The company reported an EPS of $0.66, surpassing the $0.60 estimate and producing a 10% surprise, but revenue of $1.28 billion fell short of the $1.34 billion consensus. The market reacted negatively; Robinhood’s shares declined roughly 9% in after-hours trading after the results were disclosed.
Analyst commentary and drivers
Piper Sandler pointed to slowing cryptocurrency trading activity and a deceleration in net deposits in recent months as headwinds. The firm also called attention to Robinhood’s prediction markets product - described by Piper Sandler as the company’s "fastest growing product in history" - cautioning that volumes for that product may ease now that the football season has concluded.
Despite these short-term headwinds, Piper Sandler retains conviction in the company’s long-term positioning. The firm characterized Robinhood as "the best way to play secular growth in retail trading" and described it as the closest fintech platform they have seen to reaching "super app" status.
Valuation and volatility
Robinhood’s market capitalization stands at nearly $77 billion and the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36. InvestingPro data cited in the reporting shows a PEG ratio of 0.12, indicating a modest price relative to the company’s growth rate by that specific measure. Piper Sandler suggested the recent pullback could be viewed as an "attractive entry point for long term investors," while also acknowledging the security’s elevated volatility.
That volatility is notable: InvestingPro highlights high price swings as a defining characteristic of HOOD shares. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a 60.5% return despite the recent softness that has pushed shares down 24.7% over the last six months. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access extended analysis including a Pro Research Report, additional insights and financial metrics related to Robinhood.
Other analyst actions
Following the results, Compass Point reduced its price target to $127.00 from $170.00 while maintaining a Buy rating. Compass Point attributed a 9% miss on fourth-quarter EBITDA to lower securities lending revenue and softer take rates in cryptocurrency and options trading.
Needham also trimmed its target, lowering it to $100 from $135 while keeping a Buy rating. Needham described the fourth-quarter results as strong and generally in line with their expectations, and they singled out prediction markets as a standout; January volumes reached an all-time high of 3.5 billion contracts according to that note.
Context and takeaways
The analyst activity reflects a mix of optimism about Robinhood’s long-term franchise and caution over near-term revenue mix and trading dynamics. Key issues flagged by analysts include lower revenue from securities lending, reduced capture of fees in crypto and options segments, a slowdown in net deposits, and potential seasonal declines in prediction-market volumes after the close of football season. These dynamics have contributed to share-price volatility even as the company reported year-over-year revenue growth of 74.6% over the last twelve months.
Investors and market participants will likely continue to monitor sequential trends in crypto trading activity, deposit flows, and prediction-market volumes for signs of stabilization or reacceleration.
Note: This article reports analyst actions and company-reported results. It does not provide investment advice.