Piper Sandler has downgraded Hercules Capital Inc (NYSE:HTGC), moving the rating from Overweight to Neutral and lowering the firm's price target to $17.50 from $20.50 after reviewing the company's fourth-quarter performance.
The research note points to Hercules' concentrated exposure to the software sector - roughly 35% of the portfolio - as a primary concern. Piper Sandler highlighted that this concentration leaves the business susceptible to potential negative headlines, heightened market noise, and where applicable, business model dislocations as artificial intelligence disruption affects software companies.
Despite the cautionary view on sector concentration, the analyst team acknowledged that Hercules delivered solid quarterly results and that credit quality has improved. Nevertheless, Piper Sandler said that, given macroeconomic uncertainty and ongoing market volatility, it expects near-term total returns for Hercules to be driven mainly by dividend income rather than by significant share-price appreciation.
Supporting that assessment, InvestingPro data cited in the research note shows Hercules currently yields 11.33% and has maintained dividend payments for 22 consecutive years. The stock was trading at $16.60 at the time of the report, and has fallen 12.84% over the past 12 months, according to InvestingPro data.
On the earnings front, Piper Sandler lowered its earnings-per-share projections for the company. The firm now forecasts $1.95 per share for 2026 and $1.90 per share for 2027, down from prior estimates of $1.98 and $1.91, respectively.
The analyst also revised its valuation framework for Hercules. The new $17.50 price target is built on 140% of the firm's estimate of Hercules' net asset value (NAV), down from a prior multiple of 165%. Piper Sandler cited peer multiple contraction and the specific risks associated with the company’s software exposure as reasons for narrowing that multiple.
Separately, Hercules Capital provided preliminary NAV estimates for the fourth quarter and fiscal year end. The company projects NAV per share as of December 31, 2025, to be in a range between $12.10 and $12.16. That estimated range represents an increase of $0.05 to $0.11 per share compared with the NAV of $12.05 reported as of September 30, 2025.
The company’s portfolio developments also include a financing amendment with Savara Inc. Under the amended loan agreement, Savara can access up to an additional $75 million from Hercules, contingent on FDA approval of MOLBREEVI, Savara’s investigational therapy for autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis. Combined with a previously disclosed $75 million royalty financing agreement with RTW, Savara would have access to approximately $150 million in non-dilutive capital intended to support launch activities for MOLBREEVI.
In summary, Piper Sandler’s adjustment reflects a more cautious stance driven by sector concentration and valuation pressures, even as Hercules reports modest NAV improvement and continues to offer a substantial dividend yield. The firm’s downgrade and lower price target underscore the analyst view that dividend income may be the principal near-term source of investor return while broader market uncertainties persist.