Piper Sandler has cut its price target on General Mills Inc. to $53 from $60, while retaining an Overweight rating on the shares. The revision accompanies a backdrop in which the stock is trading close to its 52-week low of $42.78, with the current share price at $44.96.
The firm highlighted rising costs tied to meeting consumer value expectations as a central factor behind the change. Piper Sandler pointed to an observable shift in purchasing patterns: promoted volumes have increased by 2 percentage points while non-promoted volumes have fallen by 3 percentage points. That dynamic, the firm said, is weighing on both top-line performance and margin metrics.
Those consumer behaviors are consistent with a recent revenue contraction for General Mills - the company’s revenue has declined by 5.65% over the last twelve months. While volume momentum has shown sequential improvement, Piper Sandler warns product mix has become a larger drag than previously anticipated because spending is shifting toward promoted offerings.
Management’s planned innovation cadence for fiscal 2026 remains intact, with a pipeline of new products slated to arrive primarily in the second half of the fiscal year. Nevertheless, the analyst noted that a hesitant consumer continues to be a constraint on performance.
Piper Sandler also observed an under-shipment relative to sell-through in January, although it expects that much of this gap will reverse in the near term. In its modeling, the firm lowered fiscal 2026 earnings per share to $3.46 from $3.65 and trimmed the fiscal 2027 estimate to $3.62 from $3.80.
The revised $53 price target is based on 14.0 times calendar 2027 estimated earnings per share. That multiple compares with the prior target, which was built on roughly 15.5 times calendar 2026 estimated earnings per share, and reflects what Piper Sandler describes as a slower path to a more sustainable pace of organic revenue growth.
Separately, General Mills updated its fiscal 2026 outlook, attributing the change to a challenging consumer environment and a slower-than-expected rebound in volumes. The company now expects organic net sales to decline between 1.5% and 2.0%, a downgrade from its earlier forecast range of down 1% to up 1%.
On profitability, General Mills projects a larger hit than previously anticipated. The company now estimates adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted earnings per share will decline by 16% to 20% in constant currency, versus an earlier expectation of a 10% to 15% reduction.
In a corporate portfolio move, Violet Foods LLC has acquired the Muir Glen organic tomato products brand from General Mills; financial terms of that transaction were not disclosed.
Adding to the market context, another analyst firm, Bernstein, has also reduced its price target for General Mills to $53 and is maintaining a Market Perform rating following discussions with the company’s leadership.
Investor sentiment toward General Mills and several other large packaged-food companies was affected after new federal dietary guidelines emphasized higher protein consumption and lower added-sugar intake. The combined earnings revisions, guidance revisions, portfolio sale, and dietary-guideline developments underscore the pressures the company is navigating as it works to restore organic growth and margin stability.