Piper Sandler adjusted its valuation on Tandem Diabetes Care following the company's fourth-quarter report, increasing its price target to $21 from $14 while keeping a Neutral rating on the stock. The shares are trading at $22.38 and have gained roughly 73% over the prior six months.
The research house acted after Tandem posted quarterly results that beat estimates on both revenue and earnings. Company commentary and the earnings call emphasized two central themes: a growing contribution from the pharmacy channel and a strategic transition toward direct distribution in international markets. Piper Sandler said both elements contributed materially to the quarter's outperformance, and while the firm observed progress in these areas it also noted that considerable work remains.
Management's initial outlook points to total sales growth that is below consensus expectations, a gap the company attributes to near-term disruption tied to the distribution transitions in the United States and overseas. Company guidance frames these challenges as temporary - headwinds that the management team expects will weigh on near-term sales but ultimately support stronger growth and improved profitability in later periods.
Analysts continue to take a cautious stance on the company's short-term profitability. Market consensus does not forecast Tandem to be profitable this year, a view that aligns with the firm's conservative near-term guidance.
Fourth-quarter financial detail and forward guidance
Tandem reported a $13 million revenue beat for the fourth quarter, a result the company attributed to record global pump shipments. The company also exceeded adjusted EBITDA margin expectations by 250 basis points for the quarter.
For fiscal 2026, Tandem set total sales guidance in the range of 5% to 7% year-over-year growth, which sits slightly under the Street's estimate of approximately 8.5%. The company provided EBITDA margin guidance of 5% to 6%, versus the Street's 5.2% estimate.
Analyst reactions beyond Piper Sandler
Other brokerages also updated their views in response to the quarter and strategic shifts. BofA Securities upgraded its rating to Neutral from Underperform, citing the company's movement toward a business model that could generate greater profitability over the next two years as it expands pharmacy access and adopts a pay-as-you-go structure. Baird took a more positive stance, upgrading Tandem to Outperform and calling out the planned mid-2026 launch of the Mobi-T insulin pump as a supportive catalyst. Mizuho raised its price target modestly to $22 from $21 while maintaining a Neutral rating.
Outlook and market context
Collectively, the analyst notes and company guidance portray a business in transition: operational changes that appear to be lifting near-term product performance come with distribution and channel shifts that are expected to suppress revenue growth in the immediate horizon. Firms monitoring the company say they want to see additional evidence of durable execution before adopting a more constructive stance on the shares.