Piper Sandler raised its rating on Goosehead Insurance Inc. (NASDAQ: GSHD) to Overweight from Neutral while holding the price target at $69.00. The firm pointed to the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which outpaced revenue expectations, and guidance that it described as close to its own forecasts.
The upgrade arrives amid a steep decline in the stock price over the past year; the share price has fallen nearly 57%, and InvestingPro data referenced by the research firm shows the shares trading beneath their Fair Value.
Piper Sandler highlighted the company’s recent top-line performance. InvestingPro figures show 25% revenue growth over the trailing 12 months and a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 32%. Those gains were reflected in the quarter, when Goosehead reported revenue of $105.3 million, above analyst expectations of $99.34 million and up 12% from the same quarter a year earlier.
Despite the revenue beat, earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.48, short of the $0.57 analysts had forecast. The discrepancy between robust revenue growth and the EPS miss is notable in the company’s latest results and has drawn attention from market participants focused on near-term profitability measures.
Piper Sandler signaled that current market pricing appears to account for a heightened level of downside concern. The research note said the stock is trading close to historical lows, a position the firm attributes in part to investor worries that artificial intelligence could capture market share from Goosehead. However, the firm also wrote that the company’s fundamental profile has not materially changed and that AI should have limited competitive impact on Goosehead’s business.
The research house maintained its $69.00 price target while upgrading the rating, citing the combination of recent revenue strength and the depressed share price. The Q4 results emphasize revenue growth even as the earnings shortfall underlines the difference between top-line momentum and per-share profitability.
These developments have prompted investor focus on revenue metrics when assessing the company’s performance. The mixed quarterly outcomes mean analyst reactions may play a role in shaping future evaluations of Goosehead’s financial health and market prospects.
Key points
- Piper Sandler upgraded GSHD to Overweight from Neutral and kept a $69.00 price target.
- Goosehead reported Q4 revenue of $105.3 million, beating the $99.34 million analyst estimate and rising 12% year-over-year; trailing 12-month revenue rose 25% with a five-year CAGR of 32% (InvestingPro data).
- EPS of $0.48 missed expectations of $0.57, highlighting a gap between revenue growth and earnings per share.
- Insurance
- Financials
- Investor concern that artificial intelligence may erode market share - a factor cited by Piper Sandler as contributing to depressed share pricing (Insurance and Technology market intersection).
- Earnings volatility relative to revenue growth, as shown by the Q4 EPS miss, which may affect near-term market sentiment toward the stock (Financials sector).