Piper Sandler raised its price target on ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) to $111.00 from $108.00 on Friday while maintaining an Overweight rating on the shares. The new target sits slightly above the prevailing share price of $107.44 and close to the stock’s 52-week high of $108.44.
The broker updated its view in the wake of ConocoPhillips’ latest quarterly report, calling the results largely in line with expectations. ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 for the fourth quarter, versus Piper Sandler’s internal estimate of $1.00 and the Street consensus of $1.07. The company’s diluted EPS totaled $6.35 over the trailing twelve months.
InvestingPro’s Fair Value model indicated that ConocoPhillips is modestly undervalued, while InvestingPro data also show that 18 analysts have trimmed their upcoming earnings estimates for the company.
Piper Sandler’s rationale
Piper Sandler emphasized ConocoPhillips’ “highly differentiated resource depth and quality” and outlined a forecast for free cash flow (FCF) expansion over the next several years. The firm expects incremental FCF gains of roughly $1.0 billion annually and projects a cumulative increase that results in a $4.0 billion uplift by 2029.
The firm noted that ConocoPhillips’ long-cycle projects are proceeding on schedule. It highlighted the company’s Lower 48 operations for their “unique” and “advantaged” resource depth and for measurable improvements in capital efficiency. Piper Sandler cited 15% year-over-year improvements in drilling and fracturing efficiency, along with 7%-8% annual gains in well productivity.
Those operational trends, Piper Sandler said, should lower the company’s oil price breakeven by about $10 per barrel by 2029, a change the broker believes will support peer-leading long-term sustainability in FCF generation.
Quarterly results and analyst reactions
ConocoPhillips’ fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.02 missed a separate consensus estimate of $1.18, and revenue of $13.82 billion fell short of the anticipated $14.14 billion. Despite those misses, BMO Capital increased its price target on ConocoPhillips to $115 from $105 and maintained an Outperform rating. BMO’s action came even as the firm trimmed its estimates following the earnings release and the company’s 2026 outlook, which BMO described as neutral.
The mixed response among analysts underscores differing interpretations of near-term results versus longer-term operational momentum and cash generation prospects. Investors are likely to watch upcoming updates from ConocoPhillips closely to assess execution against the operational improvements and the brokered forecasts for free cash flow growth.