Analyst Ratings February 12, 2026

Piper Sandler Keeps Overweight on Rollins After Q4 Shortfall; $72 Target Intact

Analyst cites weather-related disruption for quarterly miss while noting resilient recurring revenue and margin profile

By Derek Hwang ROL
Piper Sandler Keeps Overweight on Rollins After Q4 Shortfall; $72 Target Intact
ROL

Piper Sandler has reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a $72 price objective on Rollins (ROL) after the company reported fourth-quarter results that fell short of expectations. The stock dipped in after-hours trade following the release, but analysts point to late-quarter weather disruption as a likely transitory cause. Rollins continues to show strong recurring revenue, healthy gross margins and a long history of dividend payments.

Key Points

  • Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating and left its $72 price target unchanged for Rollins, suggesting modest upside from current levels.
  • Rollins missed fourth-quarter expectations with revenue of $913 million and adjusted EPS of $0.25 versus forecasts of $926.81 million and $0.26, respectively.
  • The company’s recurring revenue—more than 80% of total—grew organically by over 7% in Q4, and trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $3.68 billion, up 11.17%.

Piper Sandler has reiterated an Overweight recommendation on Rollins, keeping a $72.00 price target on the pest control services provider despite the company missing Street expectations in the fourth quarter. The firm’s target implies modest upside from the prevailing share price of $65.60, with the stock trading close to its 52-week high of $66.14.

The company reported sales and adjusted earnings per share below consensus for the quarter, a result that coincided with an approximate 15% decline in after-hours trading prior to an earnings call scheduled for Thursday morning. Data referenced in company reporting also indicates a solid recent gross profit margin of 52.86%.

Piper Sandler has pointed to late fourth-quarter weather disruption as the primary driver of the shortfall, framing the weakness as temporary rather than symptomatic of a structural business problem. That view underpins the firm’s decision to maintain an Overweight stance and its $72 price objective.

Company-provided figures show a recurring revenue base that represents more than 80% of total revenue. Rollins said that recurring revenue grew organically by over 7% in the fourth quarter, a rate described as consistent with organic growth for all of 2025. By contrast, one-time business lines experienced declines during the period.

On a trailing-twelve-month basis, Rollins generated $3.68 billion in total revenue, reflecting 11.17% growth year over year. Management and analysts continue to highlight the company’s modernization initiatives and the potential for steady, compounding earnings-per-share expansion over time, even after the recent quarterly setback.

Additional company disclosures show that Rollins has raised its dividend for 23 consecutive years and has maintained dividend payments for 56 consecutive years, signaling a long track record of shareholder distributions. Financial health metrics made available alongside the results include an overall rating described as "GREAT" at 3.06 out of 5.


Quarterly details

For the fourth quarter, Rollins reported revenue of $913 million, up 9.7% year over year but short of the expected $926.81 million based on analyst polls. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.25, missing the forecast of $0.26. The company recorded its 24th consecutive year of revenue growth.

In the quarter’s revenue composition, organic growth contributed 5.7% while acquisitions added 4.0% to that top-line increase, underscoring a mix of internal expansion and acquisitive activity driving the period’s gains.


Outlook from the analyst

Piper Sandler remains positive on Rollins' longer-term prospects, citing the company’s ongoing modernization efforts and a margin profile that has remained robust in recent quarters. The firm’s maintained rating and price target reflect confidence that the reported Q4 miss is a temporary interruption rather than an indicator of deteriorating fundamentals.


Key takeaways

  • Analyst sentiment: Piper Sandler maintains an Overweight rating and $72 target on Rollins despite the Q4 miss.
  • Financial performance: Q4 revenue rose 9.7% to $913 million and adjusted EPS was $0.25, both below analyst expectations.
  • Business quality: Recurring revenue exceeds 80% of sales and grew organically by over 7% in the quarter; trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $3.68 billion.

Context and implications

The results and subsequent analyst commentary are most directly relevant to investors in equities exposed to consumer and business services, particularly the pest control and broader home-services segment. The persistence of high gross margins and a substantial recurring revenue base are factors that support a valuation premised on recurring cash flows, while the near-term sensitivity to weather demonstrates a specific operational risk for service providers dependent on field activity.

Risks

  • Weather disruption - Late fourth-quarter weather issues were cited as the principal reason for the quarterly miss, illustrating operational sensitivity to adverse weather conditions that affect field-service activity.
  • One-time business volatility - Sales declines in non-recurring business lines contributed to the miss, highlighting exposure to variability in one-time sales channels.
  • Market reaction - The after-hours trading drop of roughly 15% demonstrates the potential for sharp near-term share-price movements in response to quarterly results and analyst reactions.

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