Piper Sandler reaffirmed an Overweight rating on Global-E Online Ltd (NASDAQ:GLBE) and held a $48.00 price target on Thursday. That target sits within an analyst range spanning $38 to $64, with consensus sentiment skewing strongly toward Buy.
The firm highlighted a 2.6% revenue beat in Global-E's fourth quarter results and pointed to a fiscal 2026 guidance midpoint implying 29% revenue growth - roughly five percentage points above consensus expectations. Piper Sandler noted that this guidance is consistent with the company's robust five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 63%.
Operational drivers in the fourth quarter included stronger-than-expected merchant conversions, solid same-store sales growth and favorable foreign exchange movements. Adjusted EBITDA rose 53% year-over-year in the quarter and reached margins of 26%. On a trailing-12-month basis, EBITDA is $129.28 million and the company reported a gross profit margin of 45%.
The fiscal 2026 guidance implies 29.0% year-over-year revenue growth, compared with 27.8% in fiscal 2025. Management signaled that Managed Markets 2.0 is expected to become more material in the second half of 2026. Analysts covering the name expect continued top-line expansion, with consensus revenue growth forecasts of about 27% for the current fiscal year.
Piper Sandler also noted valuation and liquidity metrics. The firm said Global-E trades at 12 times fiscal 2027 enterprise value to free cash flow. Current market multiples include a price-to-earnings ratio of 76 and an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 41, reflecting a premium valuation even though the stock is trading below its InvestingPro Fair Value. According to InvestingPro data cited by analysts, the company carries more cash than debt and has liquidity where current assets exceed short-term obligations by 2.4 times.
Other brokerages updated their views following the results. KeyBanc highlighted a 38% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise volume and said fiscal 2026 guidance was better than expected; the firm lowered its price target to $40 from $45 but kept an Overweight rating. Needham reiterated a Buy rating with a $47 target, calling out acceleration in gross merchandise volume growth driven by new customer additions and same-store sales.
BofA Securities raised its price target to $52 from $50 and maintained a Buy rating, noting results exceeded both their own and Street forecasts. Raymond James trimmed its price target to $45 from $50 while keeping an Outperform rating, and observed that results surpassed expectations even when excluding foreign exchange benefits. Citizens retained a Market Outperform rating with a $64 target, emphasizing Global-E's scale and partner relationships as competitive advantages.
Collectively, these analyst actions reflect recognition of the company's recent performance, margin improvement and stated growth outlook, alongside differing views on valuation and near-term catalysts such as Managed Markets 2.0.
Summary
Global-E posted a modest revenue beat in Q4, showed meaningful adjusted EBITDA growth and strong gross margins, and issued fiscal 2026 guidance that topped consensus. Piper Sandler kept an Overweight rating and a $48 price target while other brokers adjusted targets and reiterated positive stances.
Key points
- Piper Sandler reaffirmed an Overweight rating and set a $48 price target within a $38-$64 analyst range; consensus leans strongly toward Buy - impacts equity investors and consumer-facing e-commerce participants.
- Fourth-quarter revenue beat (2.6%), adjusted EBITDA growth of 53% year-over-year and a 45% gross profit margin underline continued operational strength - relevant to e-commerce and retail supply chains.
- Fiscal 2026 guidance midpoint of 29% growth and expectation that Managed Markets 2.0 will be more material in H2 2026 point to forward growth drivers, influencing merchant partners and marketplace competitors.
Risks and uncertainties
- Foreign exchange tailwinds contributed to fourth-quarter performance; if FX benefits moderate, reported results could shift - relevant to multinational e-commerce and currency-sensitive revenues.
- Managed Markets 2.0 is not expected to be material until the second half of 2026, creating timing risk around that revenue stream becoming a meaningful contributor - impacts expectations for revenue mix and growth pacing.
- Valuation metrics are elevated (P/E of 76, EV/EBITDA of 41), which could make the stock sensitive to changes in sentiment or revisions to growth expectations - a market risk for equity holders.
Tags: e-commerce, retail, technology, finance