Piper Sandler has trimmed its one-year price objective for HubSpot Inc. to $280 from $400, though the firm left its Overweight recommendation intact. The change reflects a broader re-rating across software stocks rather than a reversal of HubSpots recent operating progress, according to the note.
At the time of the research update HubSpot shares were trading near $209.33, close to a 52-week low of $207.20 and far from their 52-week high of $881.13. That gap underscores how market multiple moves can outweigh company-level performance in the near term.
Piper Sandler flagged the primary rationale for the lower target as lower software multiples across the sector. Yet the firm also highlighted a number of positive internal indicators in HubSpots business. InvestingPro data referenced by the research shows an 84.13% gross profit margin and suggests the stock is currently trading below its assessed Fair Value.
On the top line, HubSpot reported fourth-quarter revenue growth of 18% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, a result that exceeded expectations by two percentage points. For fiscal year 2026 management guided revenue growth of 16% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, which Piper Sandler notes is about 40 basis points ahead of consensus forecasts. Longer-run performance also remains robust: InvestingPro data shows revenue increased 19.21% over the last twelve months.
Digging into unit economics and recurring revenue dynamics, Piper Sandler pointed to fiscal year 2025 Net New Annual Recurring Revenue (NNARR) growth of 24%, which outpaced constant currency revenue growth by roughly six percentage points. HubSpot attributed that NNARR strength to upmarket momentum, increased adoption of multi-hub deployments, and the lift from pricing initiatives. Those drivers are relevant to cohort behavior and average revenue per account, and appear to be supporting stronger recurring revenue adds even as reported revenue growth moderates.
Profitability remains a point of transition. The company was not profitable over the last twelve months, but analyst estimates show expectations for a return to earnings this year with an EPS forecast of $9.75 for FY2025. That projected move toward positive EPS is important for margin structure and free cash flow profiles investors focus on when valuing SaaS businesses.
On capital allocation, HubSpot announced a $1 billion share repurchase authorization. Piper Sandler suggested the buyback program should provide some support for the stock amid the reduced price target. Additional commentary in the research cited InvestingPros note that management has been an active buyer of shares. From a balance-sheet perspective the company holds more cash than debt, reporting total debt of $271.94 million - a factor that underpins financial flexibility for both buybacks and continued product investment.
Despite these constructive elements, other sell-side firms have reworked their views in recent days. KeyBanc lowered its price target to $340, pointing to concern that the companys 16% revenue growth guidance for 2026 falls short of HubSpots longer-term 20% growth objective. Needham cut its target to $300 while still acknowledging HubSpots 18% constant currency revenue growth in the quarter, which beat Needhams 16% estimate. RBC Capital moved from Outperform to Sector Perform and trimmed its target to $189, citing potential cost pressures. Conversely, William Blair retained an Outperform rating, signaling ongoing conviction among some analysts even as the stock has fallen amid sector-level worries - including questions about how artificial intelligence developments affect demand and pricing across software markets.
The net effect is a mixed analyst landscape: strong fundamental indicators on margin and recurring revenue growth sit alongside concerns about sustained top-line acceleration, cost trajectory, and the valuation multiple investors will be willing to pay in a tighter software market. For investors focused on unit economics, the combination of high gross margins, accelerating NNARR and a cash-rich balance sheet with an active buyback program are noteworthy positives. For those emphasizing macro or sector multiple risks, the reduction in external valuations has been the dominant force driving price targets lower.
Summary - Piper Sandler lowered its HubSpot price target from $400 to $280, citing software multiple compression while maintaining an Overweight rating. The firm acknowledged strong company-level metrics including high gross margins, 18% Q4 constant-currency revenue growth, 24% NNARR growth in FY2025, a $1 billion buyback authorization, and a net cash position versus modest debt.