Piper Sandler has lowered its one-year price target on Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) to $150 from $270 and has kept a Neutral rating on the stock. The firm's new target sits close to Coinbase's most recent share price of $159.27, and data show the stock's relative strength index is in oversold territory after a 37.61% year-to-date decline.
The adjustment from Piper Sandler follows Coinbase's fourth-quarter 2025 financial report. The company posted adjusted EBITDA of $566 million, a result that failed to meet analyst expectations even as total net revenues of $1.71 billion came in about 3% above consensus. Operating expenses were reported at $1.51 billion, slightly below forecasts.
Piper Sandler pointed to weaker-than-expected first-quarter 2026 guidance as the main impetus for trimming its earnings outlook. The firm cut its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates from $2.54 and $3.07 to $1.42 and $2.59, respectively. Management's guidance placed Subscription and Services revenues for Q1 2026 in a $550 million to $630 million range, with the midpoint running roughly 27% below consensus expectations.
The research note also highlighted details around Coinbase's trading economics. Piper Sandler estimated a blended take rate on trading volumes of 36 basis points, versus its prior 34 basis points estimate. Coinbase reported roughly $420 million in quarter-to-date trading revenues, which the firm described as tracking toward a 7% sequential decline.
On valuation, Piper Sandler's $150 target equates to about six times the firm's 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase, a level the broker says reflects both peer multiple contraction and lower cryptocurrency token prices. Even after the downward revision, Coinbase's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 12.32, a level identified as low relative to anticipated near-term earnings growth. The stock has fallen 56.85% over the past six months.
Analysts outside of Piper Sandler have issued mixed responses to Coinbase's quarterly disclosures. In its quarter, Coinbase reported an EPS of $0.66, missing the $1.05 expected by analysts, and revenue of $1.78 billion, short of the $1.85 billion projection. That EPS result represented a 37.14% negative surprise versus expectations.
Despite the weaker-than-expected report, H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating and kept a $350 price target on the shares. Needham, meanwhile, lowered its price target to $230 from $290 but maintained a Buy rating, citing weakness in crypto trading activity. Needham's analysis showed that Coinbase narrowly beat its sales estimate while missing its adjusted EBITDA projection. Together, these divergent assessments illustrate a range of analyst views following the quarterly release.
Summary
Piper Sandler cut Coinbase's price target to $150 from $270 while keeping a Neutral rating after the company reported Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA below expectations and issued softer Q1 2026 Subscription and Services guidance. The broker materially reduced its 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts and adjusted valuation assumptions to account for industry-wide multiple contraction and lower token prices.
Key points
- Piper Sandler reduced its price target to $150 and retained a Neutral rating; the new target is close to the recent share price of $159.27.
- Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $566 million, missing estimates, while total net revenues were $1.71 billion, about 3% above expectations; operating expenses were $1.51 billion, slightly under forecasts.
- Piper cut 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts to $1.42 and $2.59, respectively, and emphasized weaker Q1 2026 Subscription and Services guidance with a midpoint roughly 27% below consensus.
Risks and uncertainties
- Near-term revenue and EBITDA volatility for Coinbase tied to crypto market conditions and token prices - impacts the fintech and digital asset exchange sectors.
- Lower-than-expected guidance and falling trading volumes could depress investor sentiment and valuation multiples for exchange and brokerage businesses.
- Divergent analyst outlooks, as shown by differing price targets and ratings, create uncertainty for market participants and can amplify stock-price swings in capital markets.