Analyst Ratings February 5, 2026

Oppenheimer Reaffirms Outperform on PTC, Sees Upside to $200

Strong Q1 metrics and a planned divestiture-backed buyback program underpin an optimistic outlook despite near-term ARR headwinds

By Avery Klein PTC
Oppenheimer Reaffirms Outperform on PTC, Sees Upside to $200
PTC

Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating and a $200 price target on PTC Inc., citing improving sales activity and durable financial metrics. PTC reported fiscal Q1 ARR growth of 9.0% (ex-FX and divestitures) and free cash flow of $267 million, met its guidance ranges, and posted EPS and revenue beats. The company expects to complete the divestiture of Kepware and ThingWorx by April 1 and to deploy proceeds toward an enlarged share repurchase program.

Key Points

  • Oppenheimer reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a $200 price target on PTC, implying material upside from the $151.34 share price.
  • PTC delivered fiscal Q1 ARR growth of 9.0% (excluding FX and divestitures) and free cash flow of $267 million, both at or near guidance; EPS and revenue beat consensus estimates.
  • The company expects to complete the sale of Kepware and ThingWorx by April 1, with proceeds of about $365 million to be used for share repurchases, bringing total planned buybacks to $1.1-1.3 billion in fiscal 2026.

Overview

Oppenheimer maintained an Outperform rating on PTC Inc. and held a $200 per share price target, a level that implies substantial upside relative to the stock's most recently reported price of $151.34. InvestingPro data referenced by market commentary indicates the shares may be trading below their Fair Value estimate.


Quarterly results and cash flow

PTC posted fiscal first-quarter results that met or exceeded management guidance on several key fronts. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 9.0% on an ex-foreign-exchange and ex-divestiture basis, placing the company at the top of its guided ARR range of 8.5-9.0%. Free cash flow was $267 million, in line with the company's guidance of $265-270 million.

Additional company-level profitability metrics cited in coverage include a Piotroski Score of 9 and gross profit margins of 83.8% as reported in InvestingPro data, both pointing to strong internal financial health.


Guidance and near-term outlook

For fiscal year 2026, PTC reiterated ARR growth guidance of 7.0-9.0% excluding foreign exchange impacts. When also excluding the Kepware and ThingWorx businesses, management's ARR range is 7.5-9.5%. Free cash flow guidance remains approximately $1 billion for the year.

However, the company set second-quarter guidance for net-new ARR of $35-50 million, a range that is below the consensus analyst expectation of roughly $54 million. This guidance represents a near-term metric where the company falls short of analyst estimates.


Deal activity, divestiture and capital allocation

Oppenheimer highlighted improving deal activity and better sales productivity at PTC, which underpins the firm's conviction that net-new ARR growth could resume in the near term. Management expects to complete the divestiture of its Kepware and ThingWorx businesses on or before April 1. The transaction is expected to generate approximately $365 million in proceeds.

PTC plans to deploy the proceeds toward share repurchases and now anticipates repurchasing between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion of stock in fiscal 2026. That amount corresponds to roughly 6-7% of the company's market capitalization, according to the disclosures cited in the coverage.


Market reaction and valuation metrics

Despite the quarter's positive surprises, the stock experienced a modest decline in after-hours trading following the results. Over the past six months the shares have declined 29.5%. The company carries a reported PEG ratio of 0.25, which reflects a low price-to-earnings multiple relative to expected earnings growth.


Earnings detail

PTC reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.92 for the quarter, a beat versus the $1.55 figure analysts had modeled, representing a 23.87% upside to expectations. Revenue for the period was $686 million, exceeding the consensus of $634.94 million by 8.04%.


Analyst coverage and next steps

Coverage noted that some analysts may be re-evaluating their views after the results and guidance, though no specific upgrades or downgrades were reported in the materials referenced. The company’s combination of solid reported margins, strong cash generation, a planned divestiture with explicit proceeds usage, and a sizable buyback program were central to Oppenheimer’s continued positive stance.


Reporting on PTC’s metrics continues to focus on whether improving deal activity and the impacts of the divestiture will translate into resumed net-new ARR growth in upcoming quarters.

Risks

  • Near-term net-new ARR guidance for Q2 of $35-50 million is below analyst estimates (~$54M), posing revenue growth risk for the coming quarter - impacts enterprise software revenue recognition and software sector growth expectations.
  • The market has already priced a 29.5% decline in the stock over six months, indicating potential downside from investor sentiment or execution shortfalls - impacts equity markets and investor confidence in the software sector.
  • Completion and timing of the Kepware and ThingWorx divestiture (expected on or before April 1) is material to capital allocation plans; any delay could affect the planned $1.1-1.3 billion repurchase program - impacts corporate finance and capital return dynamics in the software sector.

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