Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

Oppenheimer Raises Acadia Pharmaceuticals Target to $23 as Analysts Weigh Regulatory Setback

Firm keeps Outperform rating after management talks; mixed analyst reactions follow European approval uncertainty

By Hana Yamamoto ACAD
Oppenheimer Raises Acadia Pharmaceuticals Target to $23 as Analysts Weigh Regulatory Setback
ACAD

Oppenheimer increased its price target for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) to $23 from $21 and retained an Outperform rating after discussions with management about the company's longer-term revenue plan, which targets roughly $1.7 billion in annual sales by 2028. The outlook factors in continued Nuplazid growth, accelerated Daybue uptake with a new STIX formulation expected in Q2 2026, and international expansion, even as a negative CHMP trend vote on trofinetide clouds European prospects and draws varied responses from other analysts.

Key Points

  • Oppenheimer raised its Acadia price target to $23 from $21 and kept an Outperform rating; the new target is slightly below the recent trading price of $23.46.
  • Management projects about $1.7 billion in annual revenue by 2028, with roughly $1 billion from Nuplazid and $700 million from Daybue; recent twelve-month revenue growth is 12.69%.
  • Analysts are divided after a negative CHMP trend vote on trofinetide; RBC lowered its target to $31 from $35, H.C. Wainwright kept a $37 target, and Citizens retained a $34 target.

Oppenheimer has nudged up its price target for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ACAD) to $23.00 from $21.00, while keeping an Outperform rating on the stock. The firm’s revised target sits slightly beneath Acadia’s most recent trade at $23.46. InvestingPro data referenced in the research note highlights a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.28 and a notably low PEG ratio of 0.16, metrics the firm suggests could point to relative valuation support.

The update follows direct conversations between Oppenheimer analysts and Acadia management, centered on the company’s longer-term revenue roadmap. Management conveyed a plan that aims for about $1.7 billion in total annual revenue by 2028. That figure is broken down in the forecast to approximately $1 billion coming from Nuplazid and roughly $700 million attributable to Daybue.

Oppenheimer’s note places those targets against Acadia’s current pace, citing revenue growth of 12.69% over the past twelve months. The broker said the projection relies on a few operational and product milestones: an acceleration of Daybue adoption in the U.S., the launch of a new STIX formulation of Daybue slated for the second quarter of 2026, and continued efforts to expand sales internationally. The firm also acknowledged that European Medicines Agency approval for parts of the expansion now appears unlikely.

For Nuplazid, the research team assumes continued annual growth of about 13%, with an increasing share of that growth driven by volume gains rather than price increases, according to Oppenheimer’s commentary.

Beyond the core marketed products, Oppenheimer highlighted growing investor interest in remlifanserin (ACP-204) for Alzheimer’s disease psychosis. The firm noted that initial Phase 2/3 RADIANT data are expected between August and October, with a separate, subsequent readout from Cobenfy’s Phase 3 ADEPT-2 trial anticipated to follow.


Acadia’s regulatory path in Europe has hit a recent obstacle. The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) issued a negative trend vote on the company’s Marketing Authorization Application for trofinetide, intended as a treatment for Rett syndrome. That preliminary CHMP opinion from the European Medicines Agency could hamstring Acadia’s ambitions to secure a sizable revenue stream in Europe. The company has said it intends to request a re-examination of the opinion after the final CHMP vote, which is expected in February.

The CHMP development has prompted divergent responses across the sell-side. RBC Capital trimmed its price target for Acadia from $35.00 to $31.00 but preserved an Outperform rating, explicitly citing the reduced probability of European approval as a rationale. H.C. Wainwright maintained a more bullish posture, reaffirming a Buy rating and a $37.00 target. Citizens likewise stuck with a Market Outperform rating and a $34.00 target despite the regulatory headwinds. These variations underscore a lack of consensus among analysts over how the European outcome and other catalysts will shape Acadia’s revenue trajectory.

Oppenheimer’s increase in the target price and continued positive rating reflect its updated view following management dialogue, while the contrast among peer analysts highlights ongoing uncertainty tied to regulatory events and clinical readouts. Investors monitoring Acadia will likely watch the timing and outcome of the trofinetide re-examination process, the Q2 2026 STIX formulation launch for Daybue, and the near-term clinical readouts noted by Oppenheimer as potential inflection points for the name.

Risks

  • Regulatory uncertainty in Europe following a negative CHMP trend vote on the trofinetide Marketing Authorization Application could reduce expected European revenues and alter company forecasts - affects biotech and pharmaceutical sectors.
  • Projected revenue depends on accelerated Daybue uptake in the U.S. and the timely launch of the STIX formulation in Q2 2026; delays or weaker adoption would undermine the $1.7 billion 2028 target - impacts healthcare and specialty pharmaceuticals.
  • Clinical development readouts, including initial Phase 2/3 RADIANT data for remlifanserin (ACP-204) expected between August and October and subsequent ADEPT-2 results, introduce binary outcomes that could materially shift investor sentiment - relevant to biotech investors and clinical-stage drug developers.

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