Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Oppenheimer Lifts Travel + Leisure Price Target After Q4 Outperformance

Earnings beat, resort optimization and upbeat guidance underpin higher target; stock momentum and dividend profile highlighted

By Priya Menon TNL
Oppenheimer Lifts Travel + Leisure Price Target After Q4 Outperformance
TNL

Oppenheimer increased its price objective on Travel + Leisure (TNL) to $85 from $75 after the company posted fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations. The upgrade, which accompanied an Outperform rating, follows stronger-than-forecast EBITDA and revenue, continued dividend consistency, and a resort optimization plan that should add incremental EBITDA in fiscal 2026.

Key Points

  • Oppenheimer raised its price target on Travel + Leisure to $85 from $75 and maintained an Outperform rating after the company's fourth-quarter results beat estimates.
  • Fourth-quarter 2025 EBITDA was $272 million on $1,026 million of sales, both figures exceeding Oppenheimer and Street projections; diluted EPS over the last twelve months was $6.05.
  • Management completed a resort portfolio review identifying 17 resorts for reinvestment or divestiture, and expects a $15 million to $25 million net EBITDA benefit from an optimization initiative in fiscal 2026; fiscal 2026 guidance includes EBITDA of $1,030 million to $1,055 million.

Oppenheimer raised its price target on Travel + Leisure stock (NYSE:TNL) to $85 from $75 on Wednesday, while keeping an Outperform rating after the company delivered fourth-quarter results above market and firm forecasts. The revised target implies upside from the stock's recent market level of $77.30 - a share price that has climbed 31.96% over the trailing year.

Market data cited alongside the update shows TNL recently reached a new 52-week high and produced a 23.48% return over the past six months, signaling notable momentum into the latest report.


Quarterly performance and key metrics

Travel + Leisure reported fourth-quarter 2025 EBITDA of $272 million, topping Oppenheimer's $255 million estimate and the Street's $258 million forecast. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1,026 million, ahead of the $983 million Oppenheimer projected and the $998 million consensus.

The company continues to show profitability on an ongoing basis, with diluted earnings per share of $6.05 over the last twelve months. Additional financial markers noted in analyst commentary include a long track record of shareholder payouts and a current dividend yield of 3.07%; InvestingPro records indicate Travel + Leisure has paid dividends for 19 consecutive years.


Operational trends

On an operational basis, Vacation Ownership sales grew 8% year-over-year, supported by a 2% increase in volume per guest and a 5% rise in tours. Offsetting that strength, Travel & Membership sales fell 6% year-over-year, a decline attributed to lower exchange revenues.

During 2025 the company completed a strategic review of its resort portfolio and identified 17 resorts that either will need owner reinvestment or are located in markets where owner demand no longer aligns with the company's objectives. Management has characterized a resort optimization initiative as generating a net EBITDA benefit in the range of $15 million to $25 million for fiscal 2026.


Balance sheet and guidance

Travel + Leisure's reported current ratio of 2.94 was highlighted as evidence of a liquid position, with short-term assets substantially exceeding near-term liabilities. For fiscal 2026 the company provided guidance of EBITDA between $1,030 million and $1,055 million, gross vacation ownership interest sales of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion, and volume per guest in the range of $3,175 to $3,275.

Analysts are forecasting fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.60, and the shares trade at a reported price-to-earnings ratio of 12.83 based on those near-term earnings expectations.


Market reaction and context

Investor reaction appeared favorable to the earnings and strategic actions, as the company managed to post adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates and delivered revenue growth while executing a material resort optimization that included significant inventory write-downs. The write-downs were recognized as part of the effort to reallocate capital to resorts more aligned with owner demand and to improve overall portfolio efficiency.

Analysts and investors will be watching how the optimization plan translates into the projected $15 million to $25 million EBITDA benefit in fiscal 2026, alongside the company meeting the guidance ranges it has provided. The combination of an upgraded price target, solid quarterly delivery and explicit fiscal 2026 targets frames the near-term outlook for TNL in a positive light according to the reporting firm.


Conclusion

Oppenheimer's increase to an $85 price target reflects the firm's response to Travel + Leisure's stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter EBITDA and revenue, ongoing dividend consistency, and a resort optimization plan expected to contribute incremental EBITDA in fiscal 2026. The company has set fiscal 2026 guidance and retains a balance sheet with a current ratio of 2.94, while analysts project modest EPS growth for the prior fiscal year and a P/E that markets as a given benchmark for valuation conversations.

Risks

  • Resort optimization involves significant actions including inventory write-downs and capital reallocation, which could pressure near-term results in affected markets - this impacts hospitality and leisure sector performance.
  • A decline in Travel & Membership sales, driven by lower exchange revenues, represents a demand risk for the company's membership and exchange-related revenue streams.
  • Achievement of the projected fiscal 2026 EBITDA benefit and guidance depends on execution of the optimization plan and underlying market conditions, which could affect investor expectations and valuation in the leisure sector.

More from Analyst Ratings

DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026 BWS Financial Boosts A10 Networks Price Target Citing AI-Driven Network Traffic Feb 20, 2026