Oppenheimer has raised its price target for Itron Inc. to $133 from $125 and retained an Outperform rating following the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results. The stock is trading at $96.43, well below its 52-week high of $142, leaving room for upside relative to the new analyst target. Analyst targets for the name range from $125 to $150.
The analyst action follows a quarter in which Itron beat consensus on key metrics and issued guidance for fiscal 2026 that surpassed market expectations. For the last twelve months, Itron reported diluted earnings per share of $6.50. Street forecasts for fiscal 2026 stand at $7.11 per share.
Itron’s fourth-quarter 2025 results included diluted EPS of $2.46, ahead of the projected $2.19, representing a 12.33% surprise versus expectations. Revenue for the quarter reached $572 million, topping the $561.48 million analysts had been anticipating. Total revenue for the trailing twelve months was $2.37 billion, although that figure reflects a modest decline of 3.02% year-over-year.
Oppenheimer highlighted that Itron has already met its fiscal 2027 margin and free cash flow conversion objectives two years in advance. The firm pointed to three drivers it expects to support continued margin improvement and faster deleveraging: a favorable product mix, integration of recent acquisitions, and a shift to a more asset-light growth model. At present, Itron operates with a moderate leverage profile - a total debt to capital ratio of 0.22 - and a robust free cash flow yield of 9%.
Revenue visibility strengthened in the quarter as annual recurring revenue reached a $368 million run rate, up 24% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company’s recent acquisitions also contributed to an improved revenue outlook, according to the commentary accompanying the results.
Oppenheimer raised its own estimates for Itron in the wake of the quarterly report but noted several items to monitor. The firm flagged the weighting of guidance into the second half of the fiscal year and a somewhat higher book-and-ship outlook as watch points for investors.
Market reactions among other analysts reflected a generally constructive tone. Baird upgraded Itron from Neutral to Outperform and lifted its price target from $118 to $128, citing a notable opportunity in utility grid modernization. At the same time, there are mixed signals on consensus estimates: three analysts have recently revised their earnings forecasts downward for the coming period.
Investors should note the next scheduled earnings release for Itron is April 30, 2026. That event will provide additional data points on execution against the raised guidance and the durability of margin and cash flow improvements.
Overall, the combination of a beat on quarterly results, stronger recurring revenue growth, early achievement of fiscal 2027 targets, and analyst upward revisions underpins the recent positive reassessments of the company from multiple firms. At the same time, the modest year-over-year revenue decline and the flagged timing and book-and-ship dynamics represent near-term items to follow as the company progresses through fiscal 2026.