Summary: Oppenheimer lowered its price target on monday.com Ltd (NASDAQ:MNDY) to $130.00 from $200.00 but maintained an Outperform rating following Q4 2025 results and guidance that fell short of expectations. The research note highlighted several operational and growth challenges, while also acknowledging pockets of strength such as the company’s expanding AI business and a cash-positive balance sheet.
Oppenheimer’s revision comes as monday.com shares have declined to $76.44, a 13.14% fall over the past week and a 62.05% drop over the last year. The firm said the reduced target reflects the company’s fourth-quarter results and forward guidance, which it viewed as disappointing relative to Street expectations.
Drivers of the price target change
- Oppenheimer cited ongoing difficulties in acquiring low-end customers.
- The firm pointed to a lumpy transition toward upmarket customers, which has contributed to uneven progress.
- Net revenue retention (NRR) growth was described as muted, and management’s guidance was labeled less predictable.
In its note, Oppenheimer warned that monday.com’s 2026 outlook does not suggest an improvement from what it described as a "Rule-of-30ish business trajectory." The research team also flagged specific risk in the company’s NRR guidance because the fourth quarter’s result was below the trailing twelve months result.
Adding to the uncertainty, monday.com has withdrawn the financial targets it had previously issued for 2027.
Offsets and positive signals
- Oppenheimer highlighted robust growth in monday.com’s AI business as a positive development.
- The firm noted that the company’s 2026 revenue target appears to include cushion: it implies a 50% discount to new customer acquisition growth compared with fourth-quarter results.
- monday.com was also described as having more cash than debt and remaining profitable, with analysts expecting continued net income growth this year.
InvestingPro data cited in the research note indicates the stock is trading substantially below its Fair Value, and technical indicators put the shares in oversold territory. InvestingPro additionally provides 15 further insights on monday.com as part of its Pro Research Report.
Other analyst moves ahead of Q4 earnings
Several other brokerages have adjusted targets in recent days:
- DA Davidson lowered its price target to $150, citing longer sales cycles as a central concern while maintaining a Buy rating.
- Canaccord Genuity reduced its target to $190, anticipating that the company will guide lower and reset 2026 growth expectations.
- Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target to $148, pointing to mixed results in upmarket expansion efforts yet keeping an Overweight rating.
- BofA Securities adjusted its price target to $157, expressing concern that monday.com’s 2026 revenue guidance could come in below Street estimates.
These analyst updates arrive ahead of monday.com’s forthcoming fourth-quarter earnings report and reflect near-term uncertainty around the company’s growth cadence and go-to-market progress. Investors are watching closely to see how management intends to navigate low-end acquisition headwinds, an uneven move upmarket and pressures on net revenue retention.
Key implications
- Enterprise software and SaaS market dynamics are central to the company’s outlook, as acquisition, upmarket motion and NRR directly affect valuation and earnings trajectories.
- AI-related product momentum is an important positive that may support future revenue expansion if sustained.
Next steps for investors
Market participants will be focused on the upcoming fourth-quarter results and any additional clarity management can provide on 2026 guidance and the decision to withdraw 2027 targets.