Analyst Ratings February 13, 2026

Needham trims TransUnion price target after mixed FY26 outlook despite solid Q4 performance

Firm keeps Buy rating as Q4 beats and strong margins contrast with cautious guidance on mortgage volumes and India recovery

By Maya Rios TRU
Needham trims TransUnion price target after mixed FY26 outlook despite solid Q4 performance
TRU

Needham has cut its 12-month price target on TransUnion to $95 from $115 while leaving its Buy rating intact. The adjustment follows fourth-quarter results that beat revenue and earnings expectations, but Needham pointed to mixed fiscal 2026 guidance - driven by softer mortgage volume assumptions and a slower-than-expected India recovery - as the rationale for the lower target. Analysts remain broadly positive overall, and TransUnion reported healthy margins and cash-flow prospects.

Key Points

  • Needham cut its TransUnion price target to $95 from $115 but maintained a Buy rating.
  • TransUnion's Q4 results beat estimates, driven by mortgage and consumer lending, with annual revenue of $4.58 billion and a 59.09% gross profit margin.
  • Analysts broadly stay positive with a consensus recommendation of 1.71 (Buy) and price targets ranging from $80 to $125; Needham expects cash flow conversion to exceed 90% of adjusted net income in FY26.

Needham has reduced its price target for TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) to $95.00 from $115.00, but the research house kept a Buy rating on the stock. At the time of the note, TransUnion shares were trading at $71.58, well under both Needham's revised target and InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment, a gap that the latter platform interprets as potential undervaluation amid recent share-price swings.

The firm's decision to lower the target followed TransUnion's fourth-quarter results, which topped Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The company cited strong performance in its mortgage and consumer lending segments as key drivers of the quarterly outperformance. For the year, TransUnion reported revenue of $4.58 billion and achieved a gross profit margin of 59.09%.

Needham attributed the downward adjustment in its target largely to mixed guidance for fiscal year 2026. The firm pointed to market expectations for mortgage volumes that it believes were overly optimistic and to a slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in India as primary reasons for tempering its forward view. Despite those concerns, InvestingPro data shows consensus among analysts remains positive, with a recommendation score of 1.71 - in the Buy range - and analyst price targets spanning from $80 to $125.

Even as the price target was trimmed, Needham emphasized continued confidence in TransUnion's underlying business. The research note highlighted healthy growth across most business lines and projected that cash flow conversion would exceed 90% of adjusted net income in fiscal 2026. Needham said it expects the shares to outperform over the coming year, while lowering the target to reflect reduced sector multiples for information services companies.


Additional corporate disclosures from TransUnion for the fourth quarter of 2025 reinforced the picture of operational strength. The company delivered an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.07, above the $1.03 that analysts had been forecasting. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.17 billion versus expectations of $1.13 billion.

The quarterly results were noted on investor calls, but there were no new reports of mergers or acquisitions tied to the release. Likewise, there were no recent analyst upgrades or downgrades reported following the results; coverage analysts continue to monitor the company closely as these financial data points inform investor assessments.

For investors and market watchers, the juxtaposition of solid reported results and a more cautious forward guide underscores the balance between near-term operational strength and macro or market-driven uncertainties that can influence valuation assumptions.

Risks

  • Mixed fiscal 2026 guidance tied to uncertain mortgage volumes may affect information services firms exposed to lending-sector activity - impacts mortgage and consumer lending sectors.
  • A slower-than-expected economic recovery in India could dampen growth prospects for TransUnion's international operations - impacts global information services and regional market exposure.
  • Reduced sector multiples for information services stocks may pressure valuation even if operating performance remains healthy - impacts investor returns in the information services sector.

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