Needham has cut its price objective on Shoals Technologies Group (NASDAQ:SHLS) to $12.00 from $14.00 but left its Buy recommendation intact, citing mounting investor unease after a sharp post-earnings sell-off.
The firm highlighted that Shoals shares fell precipitously after the company’s quarterly report, sliding 36% in a single week to $6.84 from a prior close of $9.90. Market concern centered on what Needham described as an abrupt reset to the company’s gross margin framework as it heads into 2026 - a development that tempered enthusiasm around otherwise positive topline signals and incremental backlog momentum in BESS and data center customers.
On a trailing twelve-month basis Shoals reported a gross profit margin of 36.82%. The company’s new guidance range of 30-35% gross margin drew particular scrutiny because it represents a material reduction versus that recent LTM result, raising questions about the durability of past margin levels.
Needham framed the debate succinctly: attention is shifting from whether Shoals can sustain growth to whether the newly disclosed 30-35% gross margin range is a temporary transition or a longer-term structural shift. Despite the uncertainty and the share-price decline, the analyst reiterated a Buy rating, arguing that sentiment recovery will likely depend on visible sequential margin improvement - specifically a rebound from first-quarter lows into the second and third quarters.
Data from InvestingPro referenced by Needham indicates the stock may be undervalued on a fair-value basis, with a Fair Value estimate of $9.23. Needham also pointed to the platform’s Pro Research Report for deeper analysis on whether the margin reset offers a buying opportunity. The firm noted that sustained backlog growth will be a critical element in determining the stock’s performance going forward.
Additional context from Shoals’ latest reported quarter - fourth-quarter 2025 - shows mixed results. The company posted earnings per share of $0.10, missing the consensus $0.13 estimate and representing a negative surprise of 23.08%. Conversely, revenue came in above expectations at $148.3 million versus a $145.46 million forecast, a positive surprise of 1.97%.
Following the earnings release, TD Cowen lowered its price target on Shoals to $10 from $11 but maintained a Buy rating. TD Cowen attributed its adjustment to what it calls a transitional year for the business, which includes a move to a new factory and efforts to expand into new products, customers, and markets. Those initiatives are expected to exert pressure on margins, aligning with guidance pointing to gross margins in the low to mid-30s.
Investors and analysts alike will be watching sequential margin trends and backlog development closely to assess whether the company’s margin reset is temporary or enduring. Until those signals materialize, the market appears to be pricing in meaningful near-term margin risk despite revenue beats and backlog progress.