Needham has reduced its price target on Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR) to $22.00 from $30.00 while retaining a Buy rating on the shares. The new target remains well above Bitdeer’s then-current market price of $10.39, which represents a 63% decline from the company’s 52-week high of $27.80.
The analyst revision was driven by the results Bitdeer reported for the fourth quarter. Revenue for the period exceeded consensus, but adjusted EBITDA came in below Needham’s expectations. The earnings shortfall was attributed to three primary factors cited by the firm: higher electricity costs, increased general and administrative spending related to hiring for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) roles, and lower average bitcoin prices during the quarter.
Even with those headwinds, Bitdeer’s top-line performance has been strong. Needham highlighted the company’s revenue growth of 77.33% over the past twelve months. At the same time, the firm drew attention to Bitdeer’s slim gross profit margin, recorded at 9.83%, a metric that points to compressed profitability despite substantial revenue gains.
On capacity expansion and colocation strategy, Needham expects Bitdeer to finalize a lease at its Tydal facility within two to five months. The firm emphasized that the Tydal arrangement is expected to require lower capital expenditure than a traditional greenfield build-out because it involves a retrofit. Needham’s timeline calls for the Tydal retrofit to be completed by the end of 2026, with test graphics processing units (GPUs) anticipated in late 2026.
However, Needham also noted that litigation connected to Bitdeer’s Clarington site creates uncertainty about the timing for evaluating a potential HPC tenant at that location. While the analyst firm believes there are potential avenues to resolve the complaint, the dispute injects ambiguity into when colocation revenues and HPC-related activities at the site can be assessed.
In its financial modeling, Needham initiated estimates for 2027 that assume 150 megawatts of colocation revenue. The revised price target reflects multiple downward pressures: lower assumed bitcoin prices, higher operating and administrative expenses, and elevated uncertainty tied to Bitdeer’s U.S. sites.
Additional market context included Bitdeer’s announcement of strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with total revenue of $225 million, beating analyst forecasts of $207.02 million. Despite that revenue beat, the company reported contracting gross margins and rising costs, developments that can weigh on investor sentiment.
Other broker activity mirrored Needham’s recalibration. H.C. Wainwright lowered its target on Bitdeer from $30 to $25 but continues to carry a Buy rating. Separately, Bitdeer has expanded materially as a public bitcoin miner: the company increased its total mining capacity by 6.5 times during 2025 and added another 8 exahashes per second (EH/s) in January.
Overall, Needham’s action underscores a mix of operational momentum and margin and execution risks - strong revenue growth and capacity additions are juxtaposed with higher costs and site-specific legal uncertainty that together prompted a more conservative valuation.