Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

Needham Reaffirms Buy on Hinge Health After Strong FY25 Close and Q4 Beat

Analyst holds $59 target, points to high margins and improving member metrics despite market concerns over AI and pricing model changes

By Derek Hwang HNGE
Needham Reaffirms Buy on Hinge Health After Strong FY25 Close and Q4 Beat
HNGE

Needham has maintained its Buy rating and $59.00 price objective on Hinge Health Inc (HNGE) after the company closed fiscal 2025 with a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter and raised initial guidance for FY26. The price target implies about a 78% upside from the prevailing share price of $33.05. Needham highlighted robust revenue growth expectations, a high gross margin, and improving per-member metrics as evidence the company remains a disruptive AI-driven player in musculoskeletal and digital health services.

Key Points

  • Needham reaffirmed a Buy rating on Hinge Health and retained a $59.00 price target, implying roughly 78% upside from a $33.05 share price; analyst targets range from $48 to $72.
  • Hinge Health beat fourth-quarter expectations and provided stronger-than-expected initial guidance for FY26; EPS in Q4 was $0.49 versus $0.14 expected and revenue was $171 million, up 46% year-over-year.
  • Operational indicators cited by Needham include expanding member yields, higher average sessions per member, and strong competitive win rates, which the firm says mitigate concerns about growth durability in the MSK/PT and digital health markets.

Needham has reiterated its Buy rating on Hinge Health Inc (NYSE: HNGE) and kept a $59.00 price target following what the firm characterized as a strong finish to fiscal 2025. That price objective equates to roughly a 78% upside from the referenced current share price of $33.05, and the range of analyst targets cited spans $48 to $72.

The research house pointed to a meaningful fourth-quarter beat and initial FY26 guidance that exceeded expectations as key reasons for maintaining its constructive stance. In its assessment, Needham described Hinge Health as "the AI disruptor, not disrupted" within the musculoskeletal/physical therapy (MSK/PT) market and the broader digital health sector.


Financial metrics and guidance

Needham's model incorporates a revenue growth forecast of 47% for fiscal 2025 and a gross profit margin of 78.82%, figures the firm highlights as indicators of solid underlying fundamentals. The analyst team noted that the company reported a strong set of fourth-quarter results and provided initial guidance for FY26 that was stronger than many had expected.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Hinge Health posted earnings per share of $0.49, well above the consensus expectation of $0.14. Needham emphasized that the EPS outcome exceeded estimates by a substantial margin, which the firm quantified as a 250% increase over projections. Revenue in the period reached $171 million, representing 46% year-over-year growth. Following the earnings release, the company's shares experienced a modest rise in the aftermarket.


Operational indicators and market reception

Despite recent weakness in the stock driven by investor concerns about AI-related dynamics and uncertainty tied to the company’s transition toward a usage-based pricing model, Needham pointed to improving operational metrics. Specifically, the firm highlighted strong competitive win rates, expanding member yields, and a rise in average sessions per member. These trends, Needham argues, reduce investor anxiety over the sustainability of Hinge Health's growth trajectory in digital health.

Needham also described the FY26 outlook as potentially conservative. The guidance assumes flat member yields and average selling prices (ASPs), while Needham notes historical year-over-year yield improvements and suggests the usage-based model has the potential to be accretive to ASPs.


Research access and further analysis

The report references additional valuation and financial details available in a Pro Research Report on InvestingPro for readers seeking a deeper dive into the company’s financial position and valuation metrics.

Overall, Needham remains buyers of Hinge Health stock on the view that recent quarter results, margin strength, and improving member economics support a durable growth profile, even as investors weigh uncertainties tied to AI sentiment and pricing model shifts.

Risks

  • Recent share weakness tied to investor fears around AI could continue to pressure valuation and market sentiment - this affects the stock market and digital health sector.
  • Uncertainty related to Hinge Health’s transition to a usage-based pricing model may create execution risk and short-term revenue or margin variability - this impacts healthcare services and payer-provider contracting dynamics.

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