Needham has adjusted its valuation outlook for Instacart (NASDAQ:CART), raising its price target to $55.00 from $50.00 while retaining a Buy rating. The firm pointed to the company’s fourth-quarter performance and first-quarter guidance as the principal drivers for the change, and said the update resulted in a 2% increase to its 2026 estimated adjusted EBITDA forecast.
According to InvestingPro data cited by Needham, the stock appears inexpensive relative to its Fair Value assessment, and analyst price targets on the stock span a range from $36 to $69.
Needham highlighted several operational and commercial metrics that underpinned its more constructive view. The 2025 customer cohort was described as the largest added since 2022, and Storefront additions more than doubled compared with the prior year. The research note also underscored ongoing improvement in Instacart’s perfect fill rate - an operational measure of order completeness - and the company’s progress in attracting a larger number of advertisers to its platform.
On capital allocation, Instacart returned $1.1 billion to shareholders via share buybacks during the fourth quarter, which included the full accounting benefit from its accelerated share repurchase program. Needham observed that these buybacks occurred even as the market continued to apply what the firm characterized as a discounted multiple to the stock. InvestingPro’s reporting concurs that management has been an active buyer of shares and notes that the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Operationally and financially, the quarter showed a mixed picture. Instacart, which operates under the legal name Maplebear Inc., reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.30, below the consensus projection of $0.52 and therefore missing expectations by 42.31%. Revenue for the quarter was $992 million, however, which exceeded analyst forecasts by 1.85%.
The company’s results and Needham’s reaction have not yet prompted a wave of immediate analyst upgrades or downgrades following the release, according to the information provided. The recent updates contain no mention of mergers or acquisitions.
Contextual takeaway: The combination of a sizable new customer cohort, faster Storefront adoption, gains in advertiser count, operational improvement in order fulfillment, and sizable buybacks contributed to Needham’s decision to raise its target and modestly lift its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate. At the same time, the significant EPS miss against projections provides a counterpoint to the constructive elements highlighted by the research firm.