Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Needham Downgrades Similarweb Amid Sales Execution Shortfalls and Slower Guidance

Analyst flags elongating sales cycles and an 'air pocket' in product adoption as headwinds despite healthy margins and positive cash position

By Nina Shah SMWB
Needham Downgrades Similarweb Amid Sales Execution Shortfalls and Slower Guidance
SMWB

Needham has lowered its rating on Similarweb Ltd (SMWB) to Hold from Buy, citing recurring sales execution problems and lengthening sales cycles that prompted a more cautious fiscal 2026 revenue outlook. The company posted solid gross margins and year-over-year revenue growth but missed consensus on recent bookings and fourth-quarter results. Multiple brokers have trimmed ratings and targets as investors weigh the company's transition to AI-driven search products against near-term visibility concerns.

Key Points

  • Needham downgraded Similarweb to Hold from Buy, citing recurring sales execution issues and lengthening sales cycles that reduce near-term revenue visibility - impacts technology and software sectors.
  • Company reported annual revenue of $282.6M (13.08% growth) with strong gross margins of 79.55%, but Q4 bookings and revenue missed consensus, and fiscal 2026 guidance was lowered - relevant to investors tracking digital analytics and alternative data providers.
  • Multiple brokers trimmed ratings or targets after Q4 results; analysts still project FY2026 EPS of $0.18 and price targets ranging from $5 to $14, reflecting divided views on near-term execution versus longer-term profitability.

Needham reduced its recommendation on Similarweb Ltd (NYSE: SMWB) to Hold from Buy, pointing to persistent sales execution issues and extended sales cycles that complicate near-term revenue visibility. The shares are trading at $2.55, down from a prior close of $3.98, and technical indicators show the stock in oversold territory based on relative strength readings.

Analyst Scott Berg highlighted that the company reported fourth-quarter revenue and bookings that came in below consensus and provided fiscal 2026 revenue guidance that was reduced relative to prior expectations. Management itself has acknowledged that sales execution problems are lengthening sales cycles - a pattern the company has now reported twice within a single year.

Despite those operational headwinds, Similarweb continues to demonstrate strong margin performance and revenue growth. The company recorded annual revenue of $282.6 million, representing 13.08% growth, and sustained gross profit margins of 79.55%.

Berg framed the downgrade as a pause in conviction rather than a definitive negative verdict on the longer-term opportunity. "As a result of the sales execution challenges and what we believe is an air pocket of product adoption while customers/brands move from a SEO-based mind set to a Gen AI Search powered one, we are moving to the sidelines on SMWB shares until the company regains improved predictability on its business," he said.

The analyst also noted that at current prices the shares may appear inexpensive and that the company’s fiscal 2026 guidance reads more conservatively than historical views. The firm’s balance sheet profile was highlighted as a relative strength: the business carries more cash than debt.

Needham cautioned that a lack of immediate catalysts, limited visibility into the potential acceleration of revenue in the second half of fiscal 2026, and an overhang from AI-related disruption concerns could keep the stock under pressure in coming quarters. Nevertheless, other analysts continue to post a range of price targets from $5 to $14, and the consensus view among brokers cited in the note is that Similarweb is expected to reach profitability in the current year, with an EPS forecast of $0.18 for FY2026.


Recent operating results and peer reactions

In its latest reported quarter, Similarweb posted fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $72.8 million, an 11% year-over-year increase but below an estimate of $76.1 million from Northland. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.03, missing the consensus figure of $0.04. Revenue for the quarter also fell short of the company’s own guidance range.

Following those results, several brokerage firms adjusted their stances. Northland lowered its rating to Market Perform from Outperform; Citizens similarly moved to Market Perform from Market Outperform. Goldman Sachs downgraded the shares to Neutral and reduced its price target to $7.50 from $10.00, citing concerns around growth.


Product developments and data distribution

Amid the execution and visibility concerns, Similarweb has continued product development and distribution efforts. The company introduced AI Studio, an enterprise intelligence product that surfaces digital market data through conversational AI and ties into its digital intelligence platform. In addition, Similarweb expanded distribution of its alternative data by making select digital performance metrics - including unique visitors and page views - available on the Bloomberg Terminal. These moves are positioned to increase accessibility to the company’s digital performance insights for investors and organizations that rely on alternative data.


What this means for market participants

From an investor perspective, the current mix of execution concerns, conservative guidance, and external skepticism about the pace of product adoption has produced downward pressure on the shares despite a clean balance sheet and robust gross margins. Brokers remain split between cautious near-term views and longer-term upside scenarios reflected in their disparate price targets.

For market participants focused on software and data analytics exposures, Similarweb’s case underscores a trade-off between durable unit economics and the need for predictable sales execution and product adoption during a period of technological transition.

Risks

  • Sales execution uncertainty and prolonged sales cycles may continue to hinder revenue growth and visibility - this poses risk to software and digital analytics investors.
  • Limited near-term catalysts and unclear timing of any second-half 2026 revenue acceleration could keep the stock depressed - impacting equities exposure to small-cap technology names.
  • AI-related disruption and an unsettled product adoption environment create an overhang that could delay customer migration to new offerings and weigh on adoption rates - relevant for companies transitioning offerings around AI-powered search.

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