Needham has lowered its price target on Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) to $100 from $135 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares, the firm said on Wednesday. The move accompanies a mixed set of recent results and company metrics: Robinhood shares were trading at $85.60, with a market capitalization of $77 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 36, a level Needham notes is well above InvestingPro Fair Value estimates.
The firm said the adjustment follows Robinhood’s fourth-quarter report, which Needham described as "strong" and broadly in line with the firm's expectations. One notable area of outperformance was Robinhood’s prediction markets business, where January volume reached an all-time high of 3.5 billion contracts. Needham singled out prediction markets as a standout performer in their review of the quarter.
Needham also flagged the strategic potential tied to Rothera, stating an optimistic view of the "enhanced optionality" the company should gain as a result. As part of its updated modeling, the analyst house said it is now introducing seasonality into its prediction-volume estimates and will explicitly account for sports, elections, and other recurring events that can drive spikes in activity.
Despite the generally constructive tone on several fronts, Needham said it trimmed its 2026 forecasts, citing weakening crypto key performance indicators - specifically in volumes and take rates - as well as a pullback in options and equity trading activity. The firm expects the weakness in crypto volumes to persist for the next two quarters before a gradual recovery. That anticipated near-term softening in crypto contributed materially to the reduction in the price target.
Needham reiterated its Buy rating even after lowering estimates for 2026 due to the decline in trading volume, signaling that the firm still sees longer-term upside despite the near-term headwinds. The analyst’s updated stance reflects a balance between visible operational strength in certain product lines and headwinds in others.
Robinhood’s own earnings release for the fourth quarter and full-year 2025 underpins some of the mixed messaging. The company reported record earnings per share of $0.66, ahead of the $0.60 consensus and representing a 10% surprise. Revenue, however, fell short of expectations: Robinhood generated $1.28 billion in top-line sales versus a $1.34 billion forecast.
Analysts across a number of firms have taken note of these results, though Needham’s write-up did not list any specific upgrades or downgrades from other research shops. The company’s mixed earnings print - stronger-than-expected EPS but lower-than-expected revenue - provides both positive and challenging signals about current operating performance and future momentum.
Investors and market participants will likely view the report and Needham’s subsequent target reduction as material inputs for future assessments of Robinhood’s valuation and growth trajectory. The firm’s decision to lower 2026 estimates and to model seasonality into prediction volumes indicates a recalibration designed to reflect more granular drivers of activity across the business.
Overall, Needham’s note illustrates the juxtaposition of pockets of strength at Robinhood - particularly prediction markets and record EPS in Q4 - against weakening trends in crypto and trading volumes that temper short-term expectations. The Buy rating implies the analyst still sees upside beyond the nearer-term softness that prompted the price-target cut.