Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Needham Cuts Gemini Space Station Target as Crypto Activity Weakens and Leadership Shifts

Analyst trims price target by more than half while the exchange reports preliminary 2025 results and a major restructuring

By Marcus Reed GEMI
Needham Cuts Gemini Space Station Target as Crypto Activity Weakens and Leadership Shifts
GEMI

Needham has lowered its price target on Gemini Space Station (GEMI) to $10.00 from $23.00 but left its Buy rating intact, citing a deteriorating crypto revenue outlook and company cost reductions. The firm projects a sharp drop in crypto activity in early 2026 and expects adjusted EBITDA to improve in the back half of the year after expense cuts. The company has also announced preliminary fiscal 2025 results, significant executive departures, and a 25% workforce reduction.

Key Points

  • Needham cut its price target on GEMI to $10.00 from $23.00 but maintained a Buy rating; shares trade at $6.59, nearly 86% below the 52-week high - impacts equity investors and market sentiment in crypto-related stocks.
  • Company announced preliminary FY2025 results, executive departures (CFO, COO, CLO), and a reduction of about 200 employees, roughly 25% of staff - affects corporate governance and operational continuity in the crypto exchange sector.
  • Analysts expect a 40% quarter-over-quarter decline in crypto activity in Q1 2026 and foresee improved adjusted EBITDA in H2 2026 due to expense cuts, but a weaker profitability outlook for 2027 - relevant to digital asset markets, payment and card revenue streams, and broader financial services.

Needham has reduced its price objective for Gemini Space Station shares (NASDAQ:GEMI) to $10.00, down from the prior $23.00 target, while keeping a Buy rating on the stock. The shares are trading at $6.59, a level that represents a nearly 86% decline from the 52-week high of $45.89, according to InvestingPro data.

The brokerage's action follows the company’s announcement of preliminary fiscal year 2025 results on Tuesday, coupled with a sweeping management reshuffle. Gemini disclosed the departures of its chief financial officer, chief operating officer, and chief legal officer. The company also said it would reduce headcount by roughly 200 roles, about 25% of its workforce.

Those operational moves come against a backdrop of weak financial metrics. Gemini reported a financial health score of 1.2, categorized as "WEAK" by InvestingPro, and posted negative gross profit margins of -12.26%. Needham flagged a deteriorating trading environment for crypto, estimating that crypto activity will fall by 40% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter of 2026. The firm noted that card revenue could partially mitigate declines in trading volumes.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Gemini's revenues beat Street expectations, but expense pressures intensified. The company recorded losses on crypto assets it held, and net income materially missed consensus estimates. Investors should be aware that the company is set to report its next quarterly results on February 25, 2026.

Needham said it has trimmed top-line forecasts but anticipates an improvement in adjusted EBITDA in the latter half of 2026 driven by the expense reductions. Nonetheless, the firm cautioned that 2027 could present a tougher profitability landscape, with weaker crypto activity than previously assumed.

Gemini Space Station operates a cryptocurrency exchange and provides related financial services. The firm released preliminary revenue guidance for 2025, estimating total revenue in the range of $165 million to $175 million, up from $141 million in 2024. Despite the revenue increase, market participants highlighted widening losses and the impact of the executive departures on near-term outlooks.

Other analysts have also re-evaluated their views. Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded Gemini to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $8.00 from $14.00. Evercore ISI moved its rating from Outperform to In Line and reduced its price target to $10.00 from $15.00. Those revisions followed Gemini’s strategic choice to exit operations in the UK, European Union, and Australia as part of cost-cutting and profitability-focused measures. The company said it would continue to operate in the United States and Singapore.

The combination of executive turnover, market exits, mounting losses on held crypto assets, and a weak revenue-to-profitability conversion has reshaped analysts’ recommendations and price expectations for the stock.


Next steps for investors

  • Watch for the company’s formal earnings release on February 25, 2026, for confirmed results and management commentary.
  • Monitor trading volumes and card revenue trends to assess whether non-trading revenues can offset declines in crypto activity.
  • Track any further leadership changes or operational announcements as the company implements its restructuring plan.

Risks

  • A projected 40% drop in crypto activity in Q1 2026 could materially reduce trading revenues and further pressure profitability - risk to cryptocurrency market participants and trading platforms.
  • Significant executive departures and a 25% workforce reduction introduce execution risk around the company’s restructuring and strategy execution - risk to operational stability in the exchange and fintech sectors.
  • Negative gross profit margins (-12.26%) and reported losses on held crypto assets point to balance sheet and earnings risks that may limit the company’s ability to stabilize results - risk to investors and counterparties relying on the firm’s financial resilience.

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