Needham has trimmed its 12-month price objective for Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) to $230.00, down from $290.00, while leaving its rating on the stock unchanged at Buy. The revision follows Coinbase's most recent quarterly report, which Needham said broadly matched consensus expectations.
In its assessment, Needham noted the company narrowly topped its sales estimate but failed to meet the firm's adjusted EBITDA projection. The research house flagged several concerns that underpinned the lower target: continued weakness in cryptocurrency trading during the first quarter of 2026, management's stated plan to keep operating expenses flat amid the softer market, and the prospect that a final Clarity Act is unlikely to be fully favorable to Coinbase's business.
Despite those headwinds, Needham pointed to multiple constructive developments at the exchange. The firm observed that Coinbase's retail customer base has been net buyers during the recent pullback in crypto markets. Additionally, Needham cited the company's ongoing stock buyback activity, efforts to diversify revenue with non-spot assets, and the rollout of prediction markets as positive contributors to the franchise.
Needham also highlighted growth in derivatives trading and the international segment as supportive elements for Coinbase's longer-term trajectory, and raised the possibility that deeper involvement in tokenization of real-world assets could be a beneficial outcome for the company if it develops further.
Those analyst comments arrive alongside Coinbase's reported fourth-quarter 2025 financials, which fell short of expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $0.66, missing the forecasted $1.05, and reported revenue of $1.78 billion versus the $1.85 billion analysts had anticipated. The shortfalls included lower-than-expected net revenue and adjusted EBITDA, a point noted by H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese.
After the market close on February 12, H.C. Wainwright reiterated its Buy rating on Coinbase and maintained a $350.00 price target despite the quarterly misses. Market participants and industry observers continue to monitor Coinbase's operating performance and how management balances cost plans with revenue dynamics amid fluctuating crypto activity.
The combination of mixed near-term results, unfolding regulatory clarity, and management decisions on expenses has led Needham to set a more conservative valuation while still recognizing multiple growth vectors inside Coinbase's business mix.
Below are key takeaways and risks stemming directly from the recent analyst commentary and reported results.