Analyst Ratings February 13, 2026

Needham Cuts Coinbase Price Target to $230 Citing Early-2026 Trading Softness

Broker keeps Buy rating while flagging trading weakness, flat expense plan and regulatory uncertainty as headwinds

By Jordan Park COIN
Needham Cuts Coinbase Price Target to $230 Citing Early-2026 Trading Softness
COIN

Needham reduced its price target for Coinbase Global Inc. to $230 from $290 but retained a Buy rating after the company reported results roughly in line with Street expectations. The firm said Coinbase narrowly exceeded its revenue forecast but missed on adjusted EBITDA, and highlighted weakness in cryptocurrency trading during the first quarter of 2026, management's intent to keep expenses flat, and an unsupportive final Clarity Act as potential constraints. Needham also listed several operational positives, including retail net-buying, buybacks, revenue diversification, and growth in derivatives and international markets. Separately, Coinbase's fourth-quarter 2025 results missed analyst forecasts, and H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating with a $350 target.

Key Points

  • Needham cut its price target for Coinbase to $230 from $290 but maintained a Buy rating.
  • The firm noted Coinbase narrowly beat its sales estimate but missed on adjusted EBITDA and raised concerns about Q1 2026 trading weakness and management's flat expense plan.
  • Positives cited include retail clients acting as net buyers during the market pullback, stock buybacks, revenue diversification into other assets, prediction markets rollout, and growth in derivatives and international markets.

Needham has trimmed its 12-month price objective for Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) to $230.00, down from $290.00, while leaving its rating on the stock unchanged at Buy. The revision follows Coinbase's most recent quarterly report, which Needham said broadly matched consensus expectations.

In its assessment, Needham noted the company narrowly topped its sales estimate but failed to meet the firm's adjusted EBITDA projection. The research house flagged several concerns that underpinned the lower target: continued weakness in cryptocurrency trading during the first quarter of 2026, management's stated plan to keep operating expenses flat amid the softer market, and the prospect that a final Clarity Act is unlikely to be fully favorable to Coinbase's business.

Despite those headwinds, Needham pointed to multiple constructive developments at the exchange. The firm observed that Coinbase's retail customer base has been net buyers during the recent pullback in crypto markets. Additionally, Needham cited the company's ongoing stock buyback activity, efforts to diversify revenue with non-spot assets, and the rollout of prediction markets as positive contributors to the franchise.

Needham also highlighted growth in derivatives trading and the international segment as supportive elements for Coinbase's longer-term trajectory, and raised the possibility that deeper involvement in tokenization of real-world assets could be a beneficial outcome for the company if it develops further.


Those analyst comments arrive alongside Coinbase's reported fourth-quarter 2025 financials, which fell short of expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $0.66, missing the forecasted $1.05, and reported revenue of $1.78 billion versus the $1.85 billion analysts had anticipated. The shortfalls included lower-than-expected net revenue and adjusted EBITDA, a point noted by H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese.

After the market close on February 12, H.C. Wainwright reiterated its Buy rating on Coinbase and maintained a $350.00 price target despite the quarterly misses. Market participants and industry observers continue to monitor Coinbase's operating performance and how management balances cost plans with revenue dynamics amid fluctuating crypto activity.


The combination of mixed near-term results, unfolding regulatory clarity, and management decisions on expenses has led Needham to set a more conservative valuation while still recognizing multiple growth vectors inside Coinbase's business mix.

Below are key takeaways and risks stemming directly from the recent analyst commentary and reported results.

Risks

  • Weak cryptocurrency trading volumes in early 2026 could pressure Coinbase's core trading revenue and earnings - impacting crypto-exchange and fintech sectors.
  • A final Clarity Act that does not fully favor Coinbase may create regulatory headwinds for the business - affecting regulatory-sensitive financial services and crypto markets.
  • Management's plan to maintain flat expenses amid a challenging market could limit flexibility to invest or respond to revenue shortfalls - relevant to corporate finance and technology investment dynamics.

More from Analyst Ratings

HSBC Lowers Synopsys Rating to Hold, Flags 2026 as Transition Year Feb 21, 2026 DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026