Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

Morgan Stanley Sticks With Overweight on Chime, Cites Upside to $40 Target

Analyst highlights user-growth pacing, credit expansion and profitability focus as drivers for 2026 outlook

By Hana Yamamoto CHYM
Morgan Stanley Sticks With Overweight on Chime, Cites Upside to $40 Target
CHYM

Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a $40.00 price target on Chime Financial (CHYM), pointing to meaningful upside from the current share price of $19.82. The bank is watching user additions, volume-per-user trends and credit product expansion while flagging a stronger profitability emphasis heading into 2026. Chime remains unprofitable on a trailing-12-month basis but shows a high gross margin and ample liquidity.

Key Points

  • Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an Overweight rating and $40.00 price target on Chime Financial, with shares trading at $19.82 and down 43.7% over the past year.
  • The firm is monitoring user additions, volume per user metrics and credit expansion; it expects a supportive spending environment and foresees increased credit uptake and a stronger management focus on profitability into 2026.
  • Chime remains unprofitable on a trailing-12-month basis but shows an 87.8% gross profit margin on $2.07 billion revenue and a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 4.94.

Morgan Stanley has maintained an Overweight recommendation on Chime Financial with a $40.00 price target, leaving intact the firms view that the stock offers marked upside from the prevailing market price of $19.82. That market level represents a roughly 43.7% decline over the past year, yet internal analysis from InvestingPro indicates the equity appears undervalued at current levels.

The brokerage firm said it is closely tracking the pace of new customers, per-user transaction volumes and the expansion of lending products. Morgan Stanley expects the broader spending backdrop to remain constructive and is projecting continued adoption of Chimes credit offerings alongside a management shift toward profitability as key inputs shaping the 2026 outlook.

Those profitability goals are set against recent financials that show Chime was not profitable over the last twelve months. Despite that, the company reported a strong gross profit margin of 87.8% on revenue of $2.07 billion, and it holds a conservative liquidity posture: liquid assets exceed short-term obligations and the current ratio stands at 4.94, providing flexibility as Chime pursues growth initiatives.


On product developments, Morgan Stanley highlighted the relaunch of Chimes secured credit product, ChimeCard, which offers 1.5% rewards on rotating categories. The firm noted this could boost higher-interchange credit volumes - supporting revenue expansion from credit - while also flagging that the incremental rewards expense would temper transaction-level margin gains.

Updating its near-term model, Morgan Stanley incorporated a 6% decline in purchase volume per active user for the fourth quarter, mirroring the decrement recorded in the third quarter. At the same time, the firm slightly raised its estimate of active users to reflect managements efforts to ungate products for more customers and to account for faster growth in instant outbound transfers.

Morgan Stanley spelled out a desired acceleration in net new customer additions ahead of 2026. The firm said it would like to see user additions pick up from a recent run rate of approximately 1.5 million customers per year to demonstrate that changes such as product ungating, enterprise partnerships and expansion into higher income cohorts are translating into stronger acquisition. For 2026 Morgan Stanley projects payments volume growth of 15.5% and expects 1.7 million new users.


Chimes situation has attracted attention across the analyst community. Goldman Sachs moved to a Buy rating with a $27.00 price objective, citing potential tailwinds from the companys revised Chime Card. B.Riley initiated coverage with a Buy rating and emphasized Chimes pathway to profitability and growth potential. By contrast, Rothschild Redburn launched coverage with a Neutral rating, noting limits to the companys lending-driven growth strategy.

Within Chimes executive ranks, the company promoted three senior leaders, naming Mark Troughton President as part of a broader leadership reshuffle that accompanies the expansion of its product set. Analysts at Goldman Sachs specifically said they expect revenue metrics to benefit from take-rate tailwinds as these product changes take root.

Overall, Morgan Stanleys reiterated stance rests on a trio of operational levers: the pace of user additions, the ability to sustain or grow transaction volume per user, and the expansion and monetization of credit products while balancing rewards costs. The firms base-case assumptions and updated modeling reflect recent volume softness but continue to assume meaningful medium-term growth and improved contribution from credit products.


Investors seeking more granular, model-level detail were directed to the full Pro Research Report available through InvestingPro, which is presented as a resource for deeper analysis of Chimes growth trajectory and financial position alongside coverage of more than 1,400 U.S. equities.

Risks

  • Slowing purchase volume per active user - Morgan Stanley noted a 6% decline in Q4 similar to Q3, which could pressure payments revenue and affect fintech and consumer finance sectors.
  • User-addition shortfall - the recent run rate of approximately 1.5 million new customers per year may need to accelerate to validate managements strategy; slower user growth would impact payments and digital banking distribution strength.
  • Higher rewards costs from credit product promotions - increased interchange revenue from ChimeCard could be partly offset by elevated rewards expense, which could compress transaction margins and affect profitability in the payments and consumer credit sectors.

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