Morgan Stanley increased its 12-month price target for Smurfit Westrock to $61 from $53 and retained an Overweight rating, noting that the packaging company’s strategy update highlights meaningful exposure to the U.S. market along with momentum from self-help initiatives and a sharpened focus on free cash flow, return on capital employed and shareholder returns.
The revised target represents an $8 lift and sits close to InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment, which indicates the stock may remain modestly undervalued despite a strong year-to-date gain of 33.2%.
The analyst pointed to demand tailwinds in the U.S. and improvement in volume momentum as central drivers behind the more constructive view. Morgan Stanley also observed that the stock has recovered from recent lows but still believes there is incremental upside potential as the company moves into the second half of 2026.
Smurfit Westrock’s emphasis on returning capital to shareholders is reflected in a 3.54% dividend yield and a 15-year record of consistent dividend payments, details Morgan Stanley highlighted as part of the investment case.
Recent company results showed a mixed picture: fourth-quarter earnings missed analyst expectations while revenue was roughly in line with estimates.
In parallel, Jefferies raised its own price target for Smurfit Westrock to $58 from $52 and kept a Buy rating in place. Jefferies cited the company’s framework to reach $7 billion in EBITDA by 2030 as a positive structural objective, and said steady improvement is expected over the coming years.
Context and investor considerations
Analyst upgrades and raised targets from two firms underline a favorable sentiment among some sell-side observers, even as recent quarterly earnings fell short of expectations. Investors weighing Smurfit Westrock’s prospects will likely consider the balance between near-term operating results and the strategic priorities the company has set for cash generation and shareholder returns.
Valuation tools referenced
InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment was noted as being close to Morgan Stanley’s target. Separately, a Fair Value calculator is touted as using a mix of 17 industry valuation models to estimate stock undervaluation, and is presented as a way to evaluate whether tickers such as SWR might present opportunity, though readers should assess such tools independently.