Morgan Stanley has moved Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) down a notch to Equalweight from Overweight and lowered its price target to $236 from $258, citing valuation pressure after a strong start to the year. The stock is trading around $223.35, and the company is due to report earnings in two days on February 26.
The brokerage said it removed pre-final investment decision (pre-FID) growth projects from its base-case valuation for the liquefied natural gas producer. Morgan Stanley noted that a 15% year-to-date rally in Cheniere's shares had brought the stock to within roughly 10% of the firm’s estimate of fair value for the company’s existing portfolio, excluding growth beyond Corpus Christi Stage III and Midscale Trains 8 & 9.
On the profit line, Morgan Stanley models 2026 EBITDA of $7.3 billion, a figure it describes as consistent with consensus expectations. The bank emphasized that Cheniere’s asset position is largely contracted, with about 95% of the company’s capacity sold through the 2030s, which it said limits the company’s exposure should global LNG prices weaken.
While Morgan Stanley acknowledged longer-term upside from planned expansions at SPL and CCL, the firm said it is waiting for regulatory permits from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and for updates on contracting before assigning value to that upside. As a result, the brokerage judged near-term catalysts to be more muted.
In a related move, Morgan Stanley trimmed its price target on Cheniere Energy Partners to $55 from $71.
Other broker activity on Cheniere has been mixed. Wolfe Research upgraded Cheniere’s stock to Outperform and set a $220.00 price target; Wolfe’s upgrade follows a prior downgrade in late April. BMO Capital reiterated its Outperform rating and kept a $254.00 price target, noting those views despite recent downward pressure on the share price amid rising global LNG supply.
Corporate actions and operational outlooks were also highlighted. Cheniere declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.555 per share, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 6, 2026. Separately, CEO Jack Fusco stated at an American Petroleum Institute event that the company is projected to process 10 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas by the end of 2026.
Taken together, the analyst moves, dividend announcement and operational targets underscore active debate among brokers about where Cheniere’s value should sit after a strong share-price run and amid evolving supply conditions in the global LNG market.