Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

Morgan Stanley Lowers Autodesk Target to $350, Keeps Overweight Rating

Analyst points to stable reseller checks and margin strength while focus shifts to fiscal 2027 guidance

By Priya Menon ADSK
Morgan Stanley Lowers Autodesk Target to $350, Keeps Overweight Rating
ADSK

Morgan Stanley reduced its price target for Autodesk to $350 from $385 but retained an Overweight rating, citing steady reseller channel checks that underpin a strong fourth quarter. The firm forecasts structural margin gains and robust free cash flow supported by a reported 92% gross profit margin, while attention turns to the company’s fiscal 2027 guidance. Autodesk has also announced a global restructuring affecting roughly 7% of its workforce.

Key Points

  • Morgan Stanley cut Autodesk's price target to $350 from $385 but retained an Overweight rating, citing stable reseller checks that support a solid fourth-quarter outlook - impacting enterprise software and cloud investors.
  • The firm expects structural margin expansion and strong free cash flow, supported by Autodesk's reported 92% gross profit margin, which could enable multiple expansion if execution and demand improve - relevant to investors focused on profitability and cash conversion.
  • Autodesk announced a global restructuring that will eliminate roughly 7% of its workforce (about 1,000 employees) and incur $135 million to $160 million in pre-tax charges, mainly in fiscal 2026 and 2027 - affecting sales and marketing operations.

Morgan Stanley has trimmed its price objective on Autodesk to $350 from $385 but kept an Overweight recommendation on the software company’s shares. The firm’s analyst Elizabeth Porter pointed to stable checks with resellers that support a solid outcome for Autodesk’s fourth quarter, after the company issued a favorable pre-announcement on January 22, 2025.

Autodesk shares are trading around $226.98, close to their 52-week low of $216.01, and have fallen about 23% year-to-date. With the stock at these levels, Morgan Stanley said investor attention is moving toward the company’s fiscal 2027 guidance as the next major milestone for assessing performance.

On the margin and cash flow front, Morgan Stanley expects Autodesk to deliver structural expansion in margins alongside strong free cash flow. The firm cited the company’s very high gross profit margin - reported at 92% according to InvestingPro data - as a key underpinning for that outlook, which the analyst said could set the stage for valuation multiple expansion if execution and demand trends improve.

In its note, Morgan Stanley also downplayed potential downside tied to narrative-driven risks around artificial intelligence, saying the stock faces limited exposure from that particular concern. Separately, InvestingPro’s analysis identifies Autodesk as currently undervalued relative to its fair value estimate of $310.45, and the platform offers a Pro Research Report covering ADSK and other U.S. equities for subscribers seeking additional detail.


Alongside the analyst update, Autodesk has announced a global workforce restructuring that will reduce headcount by approximately 7%, equal to around 1,000 employees. The company said the reductions will mainly affect customer-facing sales roles as part of a sales and marketing optimization initiative. Autodesk outlined expected pre-tax restructuring charges in a range of $135 million to $160 million, with the bulk of those costs anticipated in fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027. The company expects the restructuring to be finished by the end of its fourth quarter of fiscal 2027.

Several other analyst firms have recently revised or reiterated ratings on Autodesk. JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight, citing the company’s leadership in design and Building Information Modeling (BIM) software, along with its cloud-native platform and integration of AI capabilities. KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating, pointing to strong results in recent checks and the positive preannouncement. Piper Sandler also kept an Overweight stance, naming Autodesk a top pick for 2026 on the basis of progress in deploying Generative AI solutions.

The combination of an updated price target, ongoing analyst support, and an active restructuring plan leaves investors focused on execution against fiscal 2027 guidance and on whether the company’s margin profile and cash generation can drive valuation re-rating over time.

Risks

  • Restructuring charges of $135 million to $160 million and workforce reductions could disrupt customer-facing sales operations and weigh on near-term execution - a risk to revenue realization in enterprise software and sales channels.
  • Uncertainty over fiscal 2027 guidance creates a visibility risk until the company provides clear targets and execution evidence - relevant to valuation expectations for software and cloud platform investors.
  • The stock is trading near its 52-week low and is down 23% year-to-date, which may reflect market concerns that could persist absent demonstrable improvement in demand and margins - a market risk for equity investors.

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