Morgan Stanley has adjusted its valuation outlook for PTC Therapeutics, lifting the firm’s price target to $92 from $90 while retaining an Overweight rating on the shares. The stock is trading at $70.66, and the current analyst consensus implies roughly 22% upside versus the new target, with individual price projections spanning from $60 to $124.
The investment bank refreshed its model following PTC Therapeutics’ fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results call. Management had previously pre-announced those fourth-quarter and full-year results and provided guidance for fiscal 2026 in January.
Company leadership reiterated a net product revenue outlook for fiscal 2026 in the range of $700 million to $800 million, indicating the bulk of that sales contribution is expected to come from Sephience. That forecast is delivered against a backdrop of uncertainty tied to erosion within the company’s Duchenne muscular dystrophy - DMD - franchise, which the company said could reduce overall revenue compared with the most recent twelve-month tally.
To put current expectations in context, PTC Therapeutics generated $1.73 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, a period that included 115% revenue growth. Analysts have flagged a likely sales decline for the current year, a view that aligns with management’s cautionary tone for 2026.
On cost guidance, the company set non-GAAP research and development and selling, general and administrative expenses for fiscal 2026 at $680 million to $720 million, excluding $95 million of stock-based compensation. For fiscal 2025, non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses totaled $728 million, slightly under management’s prior guidance range of $730 million to $760 million.
Morgan Stanley described the increased price target as a function of rolling its model forward, incorporating operating expense adjustments and assuming a modestly faster uptake of Sephience. The firm’s valuation uses a discounted cash flow approach with a 10% discount rate and assumes a 0.5% terminal growth rate after 2035.
PTC Therapeutics currently carries a market capitalization of $5.85 billion. A third-party financial research service assigns the company a "GREAT" financial health score.
Operationally, the company provided product-level detail for the quarter and year. Un-audited fourth-quarter global revenue for Sephience was reported at $92.5 million. Total product and royalty revenue for 2025 amounted to approximately $823.4 million, exceeding the company’s earlier guidance. Product revenue alone reached about $587.8 million.
In regulatory developments, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare approved Sephience for the treatment of phenylketonuria - PKU - in both children and adults. That decision represents PTC Therapeutics’ first product approval in Japan and covers patients of all ages and the full severity spectrum of the disease.
Separately, PTC Therapeutics withdrew its New Drug Application resubmission for Translarna following feedback from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration indicating the resubmitted data were unlikely to meet the agency’s threshold for approval.
On the analyst front, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating with a $124.00 price target in response to the company’s fourth-quarter report. Barclays initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $119.00 price target, calling out the potential of PTC’s PKU therapy and noting its view that the treatment could achieve more than $2 billion in peak sales.
Taken together, the combination of a modestly higher price target, reiterated revenue guidance, updated expense plans, and recent regulatory and product developments presents investors with a multi-faceted view of PTC Therapeutics’ near-term profile and medium-term opportunity.
Additional context and resources
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