Morgan Stanley has trimmed its 12-month price target for Sea Ltd. to $173 from $209, yet the firm kept an Overweight recommendation on the stock. The updated target compares with a most recent share price of $113.33, leaving a substantial gap between the current market level and the bank's outlook.
The bank says Sea will direct capital toward operational investments aimed at expanding its scale and reinforcing its competitive stance as the e-commerce landscape shifts under the influence of artificial intelligence. Morgan Stanley projects a strong finish to 2025 for Sea's e-commerce gross merchandise value - GMV - growth, and anticipates that 2026 e-commerce GMV growth will exceed 20% on a larger base.
Sea reported robust topline momentum, with revenue growth of 35.85% over the past twelve months, and consensus analyst forecasts pointing to roughly 34% revenue growth for fiscal 2025. Those figures support a prevailing buy-side sentiment: analysts maintain a strong-buy consensus on the company.
On the margin outlook, Morgan Stanley models a modest improvement in e-commerce adjusted EBITDA margins as a share of GMV, from 70 basis points in 2025 to 80 basis points in 2026. In the bank's view, that margin expansion would translate into approximately 45% EBITDA growth for the e-commerce segment year-over-year.
The firm also highlights regional strategies. It expects investments in Brazil to lift Shopee's average order value over time, while rising penetration rates and increased frequency of use across ASEAN markets should provide additional growth tailwinds for the platform.
In parallel with Morgan Stanley's action, several other brokerages have adjusted their views on Sea. Bank of America Securities lowered its price target to $150 while keeping a Buy rating, citing pressure on e-commerce margins linked to investments across Southeast Asia, Taiwan and Brazil. Bernstein SocGen Group moved its price target to $170 and retained an Outperform rating, noting potential benefits from artificial intelligence developments. Maybank Kim Eng upgraded Sea to Buy from Hold, calling out an improved risk-reward after a sizeable share-price correction. Phillip Securities also upgraded the stock to Buy and kept a $170 target, pointing to an improved growth outlook across the company's businesses.
Corporate activity has included capital-return initiatives: Sea's board has authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program that will allow the company to buy American depositary shares depending on market conditions and other factors.
For investors seeking more detailed company analysis, a comprehensive Pro Research Report covering Sea's financial position and growth prospects is available through the provider that issues these research products.
Context for market participants
- Analyst adjustments reflect a mix of optimism about long-term growth and caution about near-term margin pressure from regional investment programs.
- The stock's current price point leaves meaningful upside to several sell-side targets despite the recent downward revisions.
- Share repurchase authorization introduces a corporate action that may affect supply-demand dynamics in the equity market.
The combination of continued operational investment, projected GMV acceleration, and divergent brokerage assessments has produced a nuanced market reaction: several houses remain constructive on the stock's trajectory while acknowledging the near-term trade-offs between growth investments and margin recovery.