Overview
Monness, Crespi, Hardt reiterated its Sell rating on Coinbase Global Inc. and maintained a $120 price target while keeping its internal estimates unchanged. The company shares are trading at $159.05, substantially below their 52-week high of $444.64. Analyst price targets across the brokerage community range from $120 to $440. An InvestingPro analysis cited in the research indicates the stock appears overvalued at current levels, and nine analysts have revised their earnings estimates downwards for the upcoming period.
Market drivers cited by the analyst
The firm pointed to a number of market forces that likely contributed to recent weakness in Coinbase shares. These include tariff-related moves reported on Friday and the liquidation of more than $591 million in leveraged long positions. The stock's elevated beta of 3.7 is noted as a factor that amplifies market swings; over the past six months the share price has declined 46%.
Industry-wide flows are also referenced: the twelve listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows that total $3.8 billion. On-chain metrics reported by CryptoQuant show that larger holders - or "whales" - are moving Bitcoin onto exchanges, with such transfers now making up 64% of the Bitcoin volume being deposited to exchanges. The current downcycle has reached day 140, compared with an average peak-to-trough duration of approximately 350 days.
Regulatory backdrop and corporate commentary
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong appeared on CNBC with Senator Bernie Moreno to discuss the CLARITY Act. Senator Moreno suggested the legislation could be signed into law before or during April 2026. Betting and prediction markets show shifting odds for passage: Kalshi assigns a 69% probability, while Polymarket's odds stand at 52%, down from 65% the prior day. The report also notes that Bitcoin miner Bitdeer sold its remaining holdings over the weekend.
Earnings snapshot and analyst reactions
In other recent filings, Coinbase reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.8 billion, a 20% decline year-over-year but ahead of consensus expectations. Despite the revenue outperformance relative to estimates, the company posted a net loss of $667 million, a result driven by an unrealized loss from marking down cryptocurrency holdings and related investments. Those results prompted several analysts to adjust their price targets:
- Compass Point lowered its target to $140 and maintained a Sell rating, citing falling trading volumes.
- Piper Sandler reduced its price target to $150, noting a miss in adjusted EBITDA even as revenue marginally beat estimates.
- Needham cut its target to $230, attributing the change to continued weakness in crypto trading but kept a Buy rating.
- H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating with a $350 price target despite the softer-than-expected results.
Research access and further analysis
For investors seeking a deeper financial review, a Pro Research Report covering Coinbase and more than 1,400 other U.S. equities is available via InvestingPro.
Key takeaways
- Monness, Crespi, Hardt reiterated a Sell on Coinbase with a $120 target and unchanged estimates, while the stock trades at $159.05.
- Significant market moves - including over $591 million in leveraged long liquidations and five weeks of ETF outflows totaling $3.8 billion - are pressuring the stock amid a broader crypto downcycle.
- Company earnings showed a 20% decline in Q4 revenue to $1.8 billion and a net loss of $667 million tied to mark-to-market losses on crypto holdings; analyst price targets have diverged in response.
Sectors affected
- Cryptocurrency exchanges and trading platforms - direct impact from flows and trading volume changes.
- Digital asset investment products - spot Bitcoin ETFs and related fund flows are a material influence.
- Equity markets - high-beta moves in crypto-related equities influence broader market volatility.
Risks and uncertainties
- Regulatory outcome - passage and timing of the CLARITY Act remain uncertain, with market-implied odds varying by platform.
- Market liquidity and leveraged positions - ongoing liquidations and large holder transfers onto exchanges could accelerate price declines.
- Earnings volatility - unrealized markdowns on cryptocurrency holdings can produce large swings in reported net income even when revenues are near expectations.
This reporting is synthesized from the firm research and market data cited above and reflects the information provided by the referenced analysis and corporate disclosures.