Monness, Crespi, Hardt has moved to downgrade Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN), shifting its rating from Buy to Sell on the grounds that current assumptions of a smooth rebound through 2026 are overly optimistic. The firm said such assumptions were "foolish and facile" when weighed against the usual length and depth of cryptocurrency bear markets.
The stock was trading at $153.20 at the time of the note, and InvestingPro data shows it has fallen 52.5% over the past six months and 32.3% year-to-date. Monness Crespi now expects a period of softness to persist through the first half of 2026 and projects that results for 2026 and 2027 will be below consensus across revenue, EBITDA and earnings per share.
While the research house remains constructive on Coinbase over the long run - specifically citing potential in stablecoin utility and asset tokenization - it warned that near-term headwinds raise meaningful downside risk. The firm suggested that fourth-quarter 2025 projections should be reduced for both transaction revenue and subscription and services revenue, and that more attractive entry opportunities are likely to appear later than the firm's earlier upgrade to above $300 in late Fall 2025.
Other analysts have also adjusted their stances recently amid the difficult trading environment. H.C. Wainwright cut its price target for Coinbase to $350 from $425 while keeping a Buy rating, attributing the change to expectations for lower-than-anticipated net revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025 due to weak crypto trading volumes and digital asset prices. JPMorgan likewise trimmed its price target to $290 from $399, citing a less favorable operating environment for cryptocurrencies, but it maintained an overweight rating.
The downgrade from Monness Crespi comes against a backdrop of broader market turbulence. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller observed that the early optimism following President Donald Trump’s election has begun to fade as the market faces a selloff. That weakness in digital assets has reverberated across related equities, with Bitcoin mining companies and other crypto-linked stocks seeing notable declines.
Monness Crespi noted that Coinbase's share price has already retraced roughly 50% since late 2025, yet it concluded that this drawdown does not eliminate the potential for additional downside given the projected softness in trading activity and service revenue. The firm is modeling a stretch of subdued results into 2026 and 2027, signaling a notable pullback from prior assumptions about a relatively swift recovery.
Investors and market participants will be monitoring revisions to quarterly estimates, particularly for Q4 2025 transaction revenue and subscription and services revenue, as analysts reconcile models with the current market backdrop.