Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Mizuho Sticks with Outperform on Medtronic, Citing Strength in Cardiac Ablation

Analyst sees upside driven by pulsed field ablation momentum, recent product launches and surgical robot rollouts

By Leila Farooq MDT
Mizuho Sticks with Outperform on Medtronic, Citing Strength in Cardiac Ablation
MDT

Mizuho reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a $125 price objective on Medtronic, reflecting confidence in the company’s cardiac ablation franchise and several recent product and commercial advances. The bank points to pulsed field ablation adoption, growth in electrophysiology resources, and new offerings such as renal denervation, Altaviva and the Hugo surgical robot as supporting faster-than-expected revenue expansion.

Key Points

  • Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating on Medtronic with a $125 price target, implying about 30% upside from the current $96.41 share price.
  • Pulsed field ablation now constitutes roughly 80% of Cardiac Ablation Solutions, helping drive a $103 million quarterly beat and placing the division on track for $1 billion in revenue by year-end.
  • Medtronic reported quarterly EPS of $1.36 and revenue of $9 billion, both above consensus, while management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance.

Mizuho has reiterated an Outperform rating on Medtronic, Inc. stock and left its price target at $125, a level that equates to roughly a 30% upside from the current share price of $96.41. That prospective gain exceeds the average analyst target cited for the company, which implies about a 16% upside. Market data show the stock trading near its 52-week high of $106.33.

The bank’s view is rooted in the robust performance of Medtronic’s Cardiac Ablation Solutions business, where pulsed field ablation technology has become a central growth driver. Medtronic reported a quarter that beat by $103 million, or $0.02 per share, with a large portion of that outperformance attributed to pulsed field ablation. Management indicates pulsed field now represents about 80% of Cardiac Ablation Solutions.

Medtronic has set a target for the division to reach $1 billion in revenue by the end of the current fiscal year. That trajectory forms part of broader company results: total revenue over the last twelve months reached $35.48 billion, with year-over-year revenue growth of 6.9% during that period.

Mizuho highlights several operational elements behind the cardiac business momentum. Expansion of electrophysiology mapper headcount and healthy uptake of new products - specifically Affera and Sphere-9 - are cited as contributors to the pulsed field ablation run-rate. Separately, the company’s renal denervation initiative is reported to be progressing commercially, trending toward roughly 150 experienced physicians after adding 200 new accounts during the quarter.

In addition to electrophysiology and denervation activity, Medtronic completed initial clinical cases using the Hugo surgical robot at a major health system, receiving positive early feedback. The company reiterated its fiscal year 2026 top-line and bottom-line guidance, and expects operating leverage gains in the second half of the fiscal year to help offset anticipated tariff impacts and growth-related investments in fiscal 2027.

Market forecasts referenced for Medtronic show an EPS outlook of $5.67 for fiscal year 2026 and an expected revenue growth rate of 8% for that period. Against that backdrop, Mizuho expects high single-digit growth for the company to materialize earlier than the broader market currently anticipates; the firm contrasted its outlook with a 5.5% growth assumption noted elsewhere.

Mizuho pointed to recent product launches - including renal denervation, Altaviva and the Hugo robot - as supporting factors for continued momentum in Cardiac Ablation Solutions. The company carries a market capitalization of $123.6 billion and is noted to have a "GOOD" overall financial health score from the referenced market data service.


Medtronic also reported fiscal third-quarter results that topped analyst expectations. The company recorded earnings per share of $1.36, versus forecasts of $1.34, and generated revenue of $9 billion compared with anticipated revenue of $8.91 billion. Despite the beats, the stock experienced a decline in pre-market trading following the release, reflecting investor caution.

Among other broker responses, Needham kept its Buy rating on Medtronic but trimmed its price target from $121 to $120, pointing to margin pressure as the reason for the adjustment. Needham noted that the company’s fiscal third-quarter revenue and EPS exceeded consensus and that Medtronic’s management maintained its prior full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance.

Taken together, the analyst reaffirmation, the cardiac division’s adoption of pulsed field ablation, progress in renal denervation, initial surgical robot cases and the recent quarterly beats outline the set of operational and commercial developments that are driving current market attention on Medtronic.

Risks

  • Margin pressure - brokers have noted compression in margins, which has already prompted at least one price-target reduction and could affect profitability in the Healthcare Equipment & Supplies sector.
  • Tariff and investment impacts - management anticipates tariff influences and growth investments in fiscal 2027 that will need to be offset by second-half operating leverage gains, creating timing risk for margin recovery.
  • Market reaction to earnings - despite beats on revenue and EPS, the stock fell in pre-market trading, indicating investor sensitivity to near-term metrics and guidance that could influence shares in the Healthcare Equipment & Supplies sector.

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