Mizuho has reaffirmed an Outperform recommendation and maintained a $51.00 price target on Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN). At the time of the note, the shares traded at $44.04, leaving roughly 16% of upside to Mizuho’s valuation and trading close to a 52-week high of $45.29.
The analyst house pointed to several concrete metrics underpinning the call. Devon outperformed expectations on free cash flow by 9% and delivered a 22% beat on an unspecified line item, while EBITDA came in line with forecasts. These results, Mizuho wrote, reflect measurable improvements in capital efficiency that the company achieved over 2025.
Supporting the firm-level view, InvestingPro data show Devon generated $2.82 billion of free cash flow over the last twelve months, producing about a 10% free cash flow yield. That cash generation profile is one factor the analyst highlighted in assessing Devon’s financial strength.
On guidance, Devon’s standalone outlook for 2026 appeared broadly consistent with market expectations. The company did note an operational headwind in the first quarter of 2026 after winter storm Fern reduced volumes slightly below consensus estimates. Management described the deviation as weather-related and limited in scope.
Operationally, Devon is advancing a Business Optimization Plan designed to realize roughly $1 billion in cumulative savings. Mizuho reported the program is approximately 85% complete and remains on track to finish by year-end 2026. Separately, Devon retains a "GREAT" overall financial health score of 3.02 on InvestingPro, a rating that the analyst attributed to strong profitability and sustained cash flow generation.
Management also reiterated expectations for synergies from the planned merger with Coterra, positioning the combination as a strategic move to bolster the company’s market stance. In addition to the merger plans, Devon disclosed an approximate 15% equity stake in Fervo Energy through the latter’s Series E funding round. Fervo is described as a geothermal systems company.
Mizuho said it will seek further detail on how the Fervo investment fits with the combined company’s shale and Delaware basin inventory and whether management intends to pursue similar investments going forward. The analyst flagged the need for clarity on alignment between the geothermal exposure and Devon’s core asset base.
In other recent financials, Devon’s fourth-quarter results were broadly in line with analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings per share came to $0.82, matching consensus estimates, while revenue reached $4.12 billion, topping the forecast of $4.03 billion. The results arrive as the company transitions toward the anticipated Coterra merger, which management says is part of a larger strategic push to strengthen its industry position.
These developments together - strong cash generation, progress on cost savings, a pending merger, and a minority stake in a geothermal developer - form the current basis for Mizuho’s reiterated Outperform rating and $51 price target.