Mizuho on Thursday moved Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) from a Neutral to an Outperform rating, leaving its price objective unchanged at $150.00. At the time of the note, Shopify was trading around $118.71 and had delivered a 6.72% return over the prior week, though the shares remain down 26.25% year-to-date.
The firm pointed to what it described as "superb" execution by Shopify across recent quarters, including performance in the company’s fourth quarter. Mizuho underscored momentum across Shopify’s primary growth vectors and cited InvestingPro data that awards the company a "GREAT" overall financial health score. That assessment was paired with a reported 30.25% revenue increase over the trailing twelve months.
Mizuho frames artificial intelligence not as a threat but as a structural tailwind for Shopify, arguing AI will help the company accelerate market share gains by enabling merchants to expand across multiple commerce channels. The research note highlighted several specific drivers that could sustain Shopify’s growth trajectory:
- Enterprise gross merchandise value (GMV) contributions that Mizuho expects to ramp more meaningfully in 2026 and beyond.
- Continued traction in international markets.
- The emergence of agentic commerce as an additional lever for GMV and revenue upside.
Mizuho also characterized the year-to-date decline in Shopify’s shares as "an attractive entry point" for investors. The broker noted that Shopify’s 26% decline compares with a 21% drop for the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF over the same period.
Shopify’s most recent earnings released for fourth-quarter 2025 showed results that topped Wall Street estimates. The company reported earnings per share of $0.57 versus the consensus forecast of $0.51, and revenue of $3.67 billion compared with an expected $3.59 billion.
Following the results, analysts adjusted their price targets and ratings in varied ways. Stifel trimmed its price target to $115 and kept a Hold rating, citing concerns about Shopify’s free cash flow margin guidance. Truist Securities lowered its target to $110, attributing the change to valuation concerns while acknowledging solid fundamentals. Canaccord Genuity moved its target down to $165, pointing to potential AI-driven disruption in the software sector but maintained a Buy rating. Meanwhile, DA Davidson reiterated its Buy rating and held a $195 price target, emphasizing Shopify’s 31% year-over-year growth in 2025 and its forecast that first-quarter 2026 growth would exceed consensus expectations.
These analyst responses illustrate a mix of optimism about Shopify’s underlying growth and caution around margin and valuation dynamics. Mizuho’s upgrade rests on the view that AI will underpin multi-channel merchant expansion and that enterprise GMV, international growth and agentic commerce will support further upside in GMV and revenue over time.
Investors are left with contrasting signals: better-than-expected quarterly results and an upgrade from Mizuho versus trimmed price targets and expressed concerns by other brokers focused on margins and valuation. The market reaction to those inputs has left Shopify trading below many of the revised targets, even as some analysts maintain bullish long-term views.
Summary of key numerical points cited in analyst notes and company results:
- Current trading level cited: $118.71.
- One-week return: +6.72%.
- Year-to-date change: -26.25%.
- Mizuho price target: $150.00 (maintained).
- Fourth-quarter 2025 EPS: $0.57 (vs. $0.51 expected).
- Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue: $3.67 billion (vs. $3.59 billion expected).
- InvestingPro trailing twelve-month revenue growth: 30.25%.
- DA Davidson cited 31% year-over-year growth in 2025.
Overall, the landscape for Shopify as presented in analyst notes combines a favorable view of AI-enabled commerce expansion and solid recent execution with continuing scrutiny around margins, valuation and the timing of enterprise GMV contributions. Market participants and analysts appear divided on near-term valuation while some maintain conviction in longer-term structural growth drivers.