Mizuho on Thursday raised its 12-month price target for Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE: FUN) to $25 from $24 and left its Outperform rating intact. At the time of the note the stock was trading at $17.58, which the analyst said implies roughly 42% upside to the updated target.
The bank highlighted a quarter that came in ahead of expectations largely because attendance and per-capita spending held up better than projected. Attendance declined 13% year-over-year, outpacing expectations that had anticipated a drop in the high teens. Meanwhile, admission-related per-capita spending increased by about 5%, a notable divergence from Mizuho’s prior forecast of a 1% decline.
Operationally, these trends supported top-line momentum. Revenues for the trailing twelve months expanded 14.5% to $3.1 billion, per the analyst note. However, the firm also flagged that Six Flags carries a sizeable debt burden, with InvestingPro data cited showing total debt of $5.24 billion.
Deferred revenue dynamics provided another datapoint the analyst found constructive. Deferred revenue rose 1% for 2026, a reversal from the 3% decline seen going into 2025 at legacy Six Flags. Management has shifted its season pass strategy away from park-by-park products toward a regional pass offering; pass sales have accelerated under the new approach, although the underlying installed base was described as unclear.
Even with the revenue strength, Mizuho expressed reservations about cost performance. The analyst observed a decline in operating days by double digits and a year-over-year increase in cash costs. Management had targeted a reduction in cash operating expenses for the second half of 2025 of $90 million at mid-year, but the realized reduction amounted to only $20 million. Mizuho said it remains unclear where the remaining $70 million in expected savings materialized.
In related corporate filings, Six Flags reported fourth-quarter results that presented a mixed picture. The company posted revenue of $650 million, beating consensus expectations of $615.94 million. Earnings per share, however, were a loss of $0.91, substantially below the forecasted loss of $0.28. Despite the wider-than-expected per-share loss, Guggenheim lifted its price target to $33 from $31 and maintained a Buy rating, noting that Six Flags topped its own estimates for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at $165 million versus an estimate of $152 million.
Management said the quarter included 66 fewer operating days driven by the elimination of winter holiday events and unfavorable weather, which weighed on both attendance and operating cadence. The company characterized recent actions as strategic initiatives aimed at improving profitability going forward.
Overall, analysts are balancing indicators of revenue strength and pass-product changes against continued cost execution questions and a notable debt position. The stock’s implied upside from Mizuho’s revised target reflects that tension between brighter top-line metrics and persistent profitability and balance-sheet risks.
Key points
- Mizuho raised its price target on Six Flags to $25 from $24 and kept an Outperform rating; stock trading at $17.58 implies about 42% upside to the target.
- Attendance fell 13% year-over-year but outperformed expectations for a high-teens decline; admission per-capita spending rose roughly 5% versus an expected 1% decline, supporting revenue growth to $3.1 billion over the past twelve months.
- Cost execution and a large debt load remain concerns - deferred revenue trends and a shift to regional passes show some operational progress but the installed pass base is unclear.
Risks and uncertainties
- Cost reduction shortfall - management targeted $90 million in H2 2025 cash operating expense reductions but only realized $20 million, leaving a $70 million gap the analyst said is unexplained; this impacts operating margins in the leisure and consumer discretionary sectors.
- High leverage - the company operates with approximately $5.24 billion of debt, which presents balance-sheet risk for investors in the equity and credit markets.
- Operational variability - fewer operating days (66 fewer in the reported quarter) and weather or event changes can materially affect quarterly results and adjusted EBITDA.