Overview
Mizuho has upgraded LeonaBio (NASDAQ: LONA) to an Outperform rating from Neutral and raised its price target to $10.00 from $4.00. The firm indicated the new target represents meaningful upside versus the then-current share price. The upgrade follows what Mizuho described as a model reboot that incorporates two new lines of forecasting: first-time projections for lasofoxifene in mutated ESR1 (mESR1+) metastatic breast cancer and for ATH-1105, which the company describes as Phase 2-ready for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).
Balance sheet and market metrics
Data referenced in the report show that LeonaBio holds more cash than debt and carries a strong current ratio of 9.7. At the same time, the analysis flags that the company is burning cash quickly as it advances multiple clinical programs. LeonaBio, which rebranded from Athira Pharma, is a small-cap biotech with a market capitalization reported at $44.81 million and a historical volatility measure reflected in a beta of 2.73. The analyst commentary also noted low current investor awareness of the company.
Pipeline milestones and timing
Mizuho expects pivotal Phase 3 data for lasofoxifene in metastatic breast cancer to arrive in mid-2027. The firm’s projections place peak global risk-unadjusted end-user sales for lasofoxifene at $1.7 billion. When applying a 50% probability of success, Mizuho’s risk-adjusted peak sales estimate falls to $833 million. Separately, the report describes ATH-1105 as Phase 2-ready for ALS and included that program in the updated financial model.
Market sizing and valuation context
The report cites an estimated total breast cancer therapeutics market of approximately $55 billion. Mizuho stated that its price target implies roughly 120% upside potential. Earlier in the same reporting stream, Mizuho had been noted as maintaining a Neutral rating with a $4.00 price target. The document contains both statements - one indicating the upgrade and higher target, and another noting the prior Neutral rating and $4.00 target; this reflects the firm’s changing view as the company’s strategy and modeling were updated.
Corporate moves and operational updates
LeonaBio announced acquisition of global rights to lasofoxifene from Sermonix Pharmaceuticals, excluding Asia and certain Middle Eastern countries. That transaction is described as central to the company’s strategic pivot toward cancer therapy. The ongoing ELAINE-3 Phase 3 clinical trial for lasofoxifene is reported as more than 50% enrolled, with interim readouts anticipated in mid-2027. In connection with the corporate transition, the company rebranded from Athira Pharma to LeonaBio and plans to trade under the ticker symbol LONA starting January 12, 2026. The company also appointed Mark F. Kubik as Chief Business Officer to lead business development efforts.
Analyst profitability expectations and additional resources
While LeonaBio is not currently profitable, InvestingPro data referenced in the coverage indicate that analysts expect the company to reach profitability this year. The reporting outlet promotes a Pro Research Report for further detail, noting more extensive analysis available for subscribers across many U.S. stocks.
Note on reporting: The published material includes statements that reflect both an upgraded Outperform rating with a $10.00 target and a prior Neutral rating with a $4.00 target; these reflect the firm’s updated modeling and earlier coverage stance. The article reports the details as presented in the source material.