Mizuho on Monday adjusted its fair value assessment for Evergy Inc. shares (NASDAQ: EVRG), raising its price target to $82 from $76 while keeping a Neutral recommendation. At the time of the note, the stock was trading at $80.26, close to its 52-week high of $83.19, although InvestingPro analysis cited in the note indicates the shares may be overvalued at current levels.
The brokerage reiterated a cautiously constructive view on Evergy's near- to medium-term earnings trajectory, forecasting a 6-8% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share. That projection rests in part on recently executed electric service agreements and an expanded investment plan: Evergy increased its five-year capital budget to $21.6 billion from $17.5 billion and raised its expected rate base growth to 11.5% from 8.5%.
Management provided 2026 earnings guidance with a midpoint of $4.24 per share and signaled that annual EPS growth will exceed 8% beginning in 2028. Operationally, the company disclosed four data center-related electric service agreements that together represent 1.9 gigawatts of steady-state peak demand, and noted that 1,300 megawatts of that load are embedded in the company's 2030 retail sales forecast.
For 2025, Evergy reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.83, missing the consensus by $0.13. The company attributed the shortfall to weather effects and weaker industrial demand. The report noted that shares traded lower following the release, with the change in expected growth rates having been largely reflected in the stock price ahead of the earnings call.
Despite describing the earnings call in positive terms, Mizuho stopped short of upgrading its recommendation, pointing to weak credit metrics amid a substantial capital expenditure cycle. The firm highlighted Evergy's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51 as a particular concern. Counterbalancing that credit risk, Evergy has increased its dividend for 22 consecutive years and currently yields 3.46%.
Investors seeking deeper financial and valuation analysis were directed to additional research resources available through InvestingPro.
Quarterly results and market reaction
In related quarterly disclosure, Evergy reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.42, below analysts' expectations of $0.54 and representing a 22.22% negative surprise. Despite the earnings miss, the company's stock registered gains in pre-market trading, suggesting that at least some investors remain supportive of Evergy's strategic initiatives and growth outlook.
Taken together, the broker note, corporate guidance and the latest quarterly results frame a mixed picture: operational momentum tied to data centers and an enlarged capital program on one hand, and balance sheet pressures driven by heavy capex on the other.
What this means for markets and stakeholders
For equity investors, Mizuho's price-target increase reflects higher expected earnings from new contracts and investment, but the Neutral rating signals caution around valuation and credit risk. Credit-sensitive stakeholders and fixed-income investors may focus on the debt-to-equity metric and the implications of the expanded capex plan for future leverage. Customers and commercial partners in the data center sector are directly implicated by the contracted 1.9 GW of demand that underpins part of Evergy's growth assumptions.