Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

Mizuho Lifts CenterPoint Energy Price Target as Load Forecasts and Tax Guidance Ease Balance Sheet Concerns

Analyst raises target to $44 and keeps Neutral stance after company reports in-line results, updates demand outlook and expands capital plan

By Avery Klein CNP
Mizuho Lifts CenterPoint Energy Price Target as Load Forecasts and Tax Guidance Ease Balance Sheet Concerns
CNP

Mizuho increased its 12-month price target on CenterPoint Energy to $44 from $42 while maintaining a Neutral rating following the utility's in-line fourth-quarter results, reiterated guidance for 2026, an accelerated peak-demand outlook in Houston, and a larger 10-year capital plan. Favorable U.S. Treasury guidance on the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax has improved balance sheet metrics, and the company announced a convertible-note offering and an upcoming accounting leadership transition.

Key Points

  • Mizuho raised its price target on CenterPoint Energy to $44 from $42 and left its rating at Neutral, following the companys recent results and guidance.
  • CenterPoint reported 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.76 and Q4 EPS of $0.45, both in line with consensus, and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.89 to $1.91 with a 7% to 9% annual growth target through 2035.
  • The company accelerated its Houston peak-demand forecast to a 50% increase by 2029, boosted its 10-year capital plan by $500 million to $65.5 billion, and plans a $550 million convertible note offering with a $50 million option.

Mizuho has adjusted its target price for CenterPoint Energy (CNP) upward to $44 from $42 but kept a Neutral rating on the stock. The move follows CenterPoint's release of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results and an update to its long-range plans and financing position.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.76 for 2025 and fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.45, both described by management as consistent with consensus expectations. CenterPoint also reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $1.89 to $1.91 and reiterated an assumed annual adjusted EPS growth rate of 7% to 9% through 2035.

On the equity side, CenterPoint has delivered a total return that sent the stock up 28.3% over the past year. Shares were trading at roughly $43 at the time of the most recent update, marginally below the 52-week high of $43.20. Third-party Fair Value analysis cited in company research suggests the shares may be trading above fair value. The company pays a 2.14% dividend yield and has sustained dividend payouts for 56 consecutive years.

Operationally, the utility revised upward its peak-demand expectations in the Houston Electric service territory. Peak demand is now projected to rise by 50% by 2029, a timeline accelerated by two years relative to previous forecasts. In response to rising load expectations, CenterPoint increased its 10-year capital program by $500 million, bringing the total to $65.5 billion. The expanded plan reflects, among other elements, the addition of a third 765 kV transmission line.

Balance sheet dynamics improved after the U.S. Treasury issued guidance on the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax. Management estimated that the guidance will enhance the companys funds from operations to debt metric by approximately 60 to 70 basis points. Mizuho characterized the CAMT benefit as unexpected and described the companys investor call as constructive, noting that balance sheet condition has been a principal investor concern.

On the financing front, CenterPoint revealed plans to sell $550 million of convertible senior notes due in 2029 via a private placement to qualified institutional buyers. The offering structure includes an option for initial purchasers to acquire an additional $50 million of the notes within 13 days of issuance.

The company also announced forthcoming changes in its accounting leadership. Kristie L. Colvin, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, will step down from her current role on March 2, 2026 and serve in an advisory capacity until her retirement effective June 1, 2026. Russell K. Wright will assume the position of Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer on March 2, 2026. Wright is a certified public accountant who has held multiple financial leadership roles within CenterPoint Energy.

The situation combines in-line operational results, a heightened capital program tied to faster-than-expected load growth in a key service area, a debt-metrics tailwind from tax guidance, and new near-term financing plans. Investors will continue to weigh these factors alongside valuation signals and dividend consistency.

Risks

  • Valuation risk - Independent Fair Value analysis cited suggests the stock may be trading above intrinsic value, which could limit upside for investors in the utilities sector.
  • Execution and capital intensity risk - The enlarged 10-year capital program, including a new 765 kV transmission line, increases infrastructure spending requirements for the company and affects utility and infrastructure markets.
  • Balance sheet and financing risk - While Treasury guidance on the CAMT improves funds from operations to debt by an estimated 60 to 70 basis points, ongoing investor concern over leverage remains relevant for credit-sensitive stakeholders and capital markets.

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