Macquarie upgraded ZTO Express (NYSE: ZTO) to Outperform from Neutral and increased its 12-month price target to $26.60 from $18.40, citing the company’s recent operating trends and positioning within the logistics market. At the time of the update the shares were trading at $24.09, marginally below the 52-week high of $24.14. External valuation data shows the stock is trading beneath its Fair Value, indicating potential upside relative to that benchmark.
The analyst action follows ZTO’s preliminary fourth-quarter results which indicated parcel volume growth of 9% year-over-year. That performance outpaced the industry-level growth rate of 5% reported by the State Post Bureau for the same period. ZTO also disclosed a range for fourth-quarter revenue growth of 8% to 19% year-over-year and a gross profit margin band between 23% and 28% for the quarter. Those margin figures are consistent with the company’s last twelve months gross profit margin of 25.99% as reported in InvestingPro data.
Macquarie characterized ZTO as well positioned to benefit from customers shifting pricing preferences in the current logistics environment, referring to an anti-involution policy context within the industry. The firm highlighted ZTO’s combination of high quality and relatively affordable services as a competitive advantage that could attract customers adjusting to pricing changes.
Third-party data identifies ZTO as a leading participant in the Air Freight & Logistics sector, with a market capitalization of $18.58 billion according to InvestingPro. Macquarie’s forward-looking modeling anticipates that ZTO will continue to expand volume: the firm projects total parcel volume growth of 8% year-over-year for 2026, compared with an expected industry growth rate of 7% for the same year.
On pricing, Macquarie expects an improving average selling price for ZTO in 2026, forecasting a year-over-year increase of Rmb0.02 to reach Rmb1.28 per parcel. The firm attributes that improvement to a combination of broader industry pricing recovery and ZTO’s initiatives around key accounts and a return & retail strategy. Macquarie’s modeling assumes that unit economics, which they say reached a trough in 2025, will recover as scale increases and average selling prices firm up. The firm projects total adjusted operating profit of Rmb12.4 billion for 2026 and forecasts unit operating profit rising by Rmb0.03 year-over-year to Rmb0.28.
Valuation metrics cited alongside these forecasts show the stock trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.25. InvestingPro’s metrics also assign ZTO a financial health rating of "GREAT."
Recent company results provide additional context. In the third quarter of 2025 ZTO reported earnings per share of $3.06, beating an expected $2.42. The company recorded a small revenue shortfall for that quarter, but the stronger-than-expected EPS was presented as evidence of effective execution of strategy.
Broker commentary remains generally positive, though not unanimous in detail. Morgan Stanley raised its price target for ZTO to $25.00 from $23.80 and maintained an Overweight rating, citing market share gains. Jefferies trimmed its price target slightly to $25.00 from $25.30 but kept a Buy rating. Together these broker updates reflect differing views on near-term valuation while maintaining overall constructive stances on the company’s prospects.
Key points
- Macquarie upgraded ZTO Express to Outperform and raised its price target to $26.60 from $18.40.
- ZTO reported preliminary Q4 parcel volume growth of 9% year-over-year, exceeding the industry pace of 5%.
- Analysts forecast improved unit economics and modest average selling price gains for 2026, with modeled adjusted operating profit of Rmb12.4 billion.
Risks and uncertainties
- Reported revenue and margin ranges introduce uncertainty around exact quarterly outcomes, which affects near-term earnings visibility.
- Analyst projections rely on assumptions that unit economics have troughed and will recover, which remains subject to execution and market conditions.
This article presents the company and analyst statements, along with third-party valuation and market data, to outline why certain brokerages adjusted ratings and targets. Readers should note the ranges reported for revenue and margins, and the variety of broker perspectives on price targets despite broadly positive evaluations.