Lumentum Holdings reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 results that came in ahead of analyst expectations and lifted its forward guidance. The company flagged several demand and mix improvements that market participants say could be read positively for peers in the optical components space, including Coherent, which is due to report results on February 4.
Executives at Lumentum highlighted a stronger performance from electro-absorption modulated lasers, or EMLs. The business benefitted from improved capacity, selective price increases and a compositional shift toward higher-value 200G-per-lane lasers. Those 200G devices command roughly twice the average selling price of 100G offerings, lifting average selling prices and revenue mix in the quarter.
Meanwhile, demand for optical communication systems exceeded initial expectations. Lumentum said backlog for OCS now tops $400 million across three customers, with most of that backlog scheduled for delivery in the second half of calendar 2026. Separately, market research firms materially increased their 2026 OCS market projection to nearly $1.5 billion, up from a prior estimate of $500 million.
Cloud Light transceiver shipments also showed momentum, rising by $50 million quarter-over-quarter as the customer base broadened. Management described a more favorable outlook for the Cloud Light unit, and Raymond James models from commentary cited in the report project Cloud Light sales to exceed $1.3 billion in fiscal 2027.
Analysts and brokers have pointed to co-packaged optics, or CPO, as an emerging focal point in the broader debate between optical and copper interconnects. Raymond James estimated the CPO laser total addressable market at approximately $22 billion by 2030. That estimate is frequently cited as indicating significant potential upside for companies with exposure to CPO.
Coherent has been singled out in market commentary as a company positioned to benefit from these trends. The company is identified as a leader in 800G revenue and 1.6T datacom transceivers, and as the number two player in both CPO and OCS. InvestingPro data referenced in the report shows Coherent’s revenue growth at 20.8% and indicates analysts are forecasting roughly 15% revenue growth in fiscal 2026.
At the same time, InvestingPro data also suggests Coherent may be trading above its InvestingPro Fair Value. The company’s earnings-per-share forecast for FY2026 is $5.73, and shares were trading near a 52-week high of $241.50 at the time of the report.
Broker and product developments have continued to shape the narrative. Stifel raised its price target on Coherent to $220 while keeping a Buy rating, citing expectations that networking intensity will rise as artificial intelligence applications drive demand. Coherent announced a germanium-free electro-optic modulator aimed at semiconductor applications, which the company described as addressing performance and supply-chain considerations. Product introductions also included two portable laser power meters, the FieldMax Touch and FieldMax Touch Pro, designed for field use with laboratory-grade capabilities, and the WaveShaper 1000A Sharp programmable optical filter offering 5 GHz resolution.
On the corporate and shareholder front, Bain Capital has offered to sell a sizable block of Coherent shares, marking the third such offering in just over a month. Goldman Sachs is managing a placement of 5 million shares, which are being offered at a discount to the most recent closing price.
The cumulative picture presented in Lumentum’s results and the cascade of product, market and corporate developments around Coherent suggests a mix of opportunity and near-term considerations. Strong EML mix, expanding Cloud Light revenue and a heavier OCS backlog have lifted market forecasts for parts of the optical market, while valuation metrics and active secondary share offerings are factors investors will weigh as Coherent approaches its earnings release.
Summary
Lumentum’s better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter 2026 results and raised guidance were driven by higher-value EML sales, stronger Cloud Light transceiver revenue and an OCS backlog above $400 million. Market forecasts for OCS were revised sharply higher, and Raymond James projects meaningful Cloud Light revenue growth. Coherent is positioned as a potential beneficiary given its exposure to 800G, 1.6T transceivers, CPO and OCS, though valuation and recent share sale activity are active considerations.