Lucid Capital Markets has adjusted its valuation outlook for Palvella Therapeutics, raising its price target on the company’s Nasdaq-listed shares (PVLA) to $241 from $212 and maintaining a Buy recommendation. The move follows the release of full results from the Phase 3 SELVA trial for QTORIN 3.9% rapamycin anhydrous gel, a product intended to treat microcystic lymphatic malformations.
The stock is trading at $118.91, noted in reports as near a stated 52-week high of $114.69, and has recorded a substantial 339% gain over the past year. Palvella carries a market capitalization of $1.43 billion, and the range of analyst price targets extends from $143 to $267.
Lucid pointed to the SELVA trial’s key outcomes as the basis for its updated view. The trial achieved a mean improvement of +2.13 on the Microcystic Lymphatic Malformation Investigator Global Assessment (mLM-IGA) scale and produced an 86% responder rate. Company management had previously indicated that an improvement threshold of approximately 1.0 would represent a decisive win; the trial result exceeded that level.
To gauge likely adoption among prescribers, Lucid conducted a proprietary physician survey involving 25 clinicians. According to that survey, 96% of respondents said they would actively prescribe at the efficacy level demonstrated in the trial. Only 4% of surveyed physicians indicated they would require a higher efficacy threshold of +2.2 before prescribing.
Management also provided preliminary commercial assumptions: price guidance of $100,000 to $200,000 per year for the treatment and peak sales potential between $1 billion and $3 billion when combining mLM and cVM indications. The company is targeting a label for patients aged 3 and older.
On the regulatory timetable, Palvella has signaled that the New Drug Application (NDA) submission remains on track for the second half of 2026. Company statements indicate commercial infrastructure is already in place to support launch if approvals proceed as planned.
Market research and pricing context from InvestingPro analysis were also cited in coverage: despite the heightened near-term optimism, the stock was flagged as appearing overvalued relative to its Fair Value. Palvella is listed among 1,400-plus U.S. equities covered by comprehensive Pro Research Reports, and InvestingPro Tips highlighted that analysts do not anticipate the company will be profitable this year, a pattern described as typical for biotech companies in development stages - access 13 additional ProTips for deeper insights into PVLA’s investment profile.
Other broker reactions tracked alongside Lucid’s update reinforced the positive market response to SELVA data. Stifel raised its price target to $250 while keeping a Buy rating. Raymond James reiterated a Strong Buy rating and set a $193 target, noting that the company had increased its internal benchmarks for success in the trial. Clear Street maintained a Buy recommendation with a $200 price target and emphasized the potential for substantial clinical benefit for a majority of patients. Collectively, these analyst moves reflect broad confidence in the trial outcomes.
Palvella separately announced that the Phase 3 SELVA trial met both its primary and secondary endpoints with high statistical significance, reiterating the reported mean improvement of 2.13 points on the mLM-IGA scale.
Investors and market participants will likely watch the company’s next steps closely: final NDA timing and content, any adjustments to commercial pricing assumptions, and the pace of payer coverage decisions once regulatory milestones are achieved. For now, analysts’ models reflect a mix of optimism on potential revenue and caution on near-term profitability, consistent with sector norms for development-stage biotech companies.