Leerink Partners has reiterated its Outperform rating and maintained a $24.00 price target on Fulcrum Therapeutics (NASDAQ:FULC) after the company released the complete dataset from its Phase 1b PIONEER study of pociredir in sickle cell disease.
The research firm highlighted that the PIONEER data - which evaluate pociredir as an HbF inducer - continue to show favorable evolution in treating sickle cell disease. Leerink retained a 75% probability of success estimate for pociredir, and said the aggregate study results represent a meaningful therapeutic opportunity in a condition with very high unmet need.
Fulcrum’s shares have moved sharply over the past year, delivering a 194% return, though the stock is trading at roughly $9.27 and carries a market capitalization near $603 million.
Study context and analyst perspective
Leerink noted that some market participants may have anticipated a more pronounced improvement versus the company’s prior update. The firm emphasized, however, that the prior update was already robust and relatively mature, which limited the magnitude of incremental gains in the full dataset. Drawing from the study’s trajectory and competitive landscape, Leerink estimated that Fulcrum has about a two-year head start over the next hemoglobin F (HbF) competitor.
Alongside the PIONEER data release, Fulcrum reported fourth-quarter 2025 results and held its Q4 2025 earnings call. Leerink updated its internal financial model to reflect the earnings release, but did not change its price target or its probability of success for pociredir.
Market reaction and peer analyst views
Despite the encouraging data, the market response was negative following the release, a reaction Leerink attributed in part to expectations for nearer-term financial upside that were not met. Other brokerages expressed differing interpretations of the study data and the company’s prospects.
- BofA Securities reiterated an Underperform rating with a $7.00 price target after the announcement of 12-week data for pociredir in severe sickle cell patients.
- Stifel maintained a Buy rating and a $25.00 price target, noting that the drug achieved 19.3% total mean HbF levels, which the firm described as exceeding physician expectations.
- Oppenheimer said recent share price weakness largely reflected profit-taking and left an Outperform rating with a $15.00 price target in place.
Valuation and investor resources
Independent analysis indicates the stock currently looks overvalued relative to its Fair Value, according to available research summaries. For investors seeking deeper research, full analyst reports and pro-level research notes are available through subscription services.
Outlook
Leerink’s stance is that the PIONEER dataset as a whole establishes a credible opportunity for pociredir in sickle cell disease and supports the firm’s existing valuation assumptions for the program. The combination of a maintained high probability of success estimate and an unchanged price target underscores the firm’s continued confidence in the program despite mixed market response and divergence among sell-side ratings.
The data release and subsequent commentary from multiple brokerages illustrate the range of interpretations that can follow early-stage clinical readouts - from optimism about clinical effect size and competitive lead to caution driven by valuation and timing of commercial returns.